TL;DR

Solana has traded sideways for 18 months, unable to close above the $115 support and $230 resistance. Analysts say recent false breakouts may reset the stage for a larger breakout move. Weekly close above $230 could push Solana toward targets near $295 and possibly beyond.

Range-Bound Movement Continues

Solana (SOL) has mostly traded between $115 and $230 for the past 18 months, without a clear closure outside this range. Following a 2023 rally, the price went into a wide consolidation period. Since that time, there have been two sharp but non-sustained determinations of the range. 

Notably, the first came in January 2025 when SOL briefly broke above $230. The second occurred in April 2025 when the price fell below $115 but quickly recovered.

According to analyst BitBull, this structure “resembles a 2023 pattern” that preceded a strong move. At the time of writing, SOL trades at $186.. Daily volume sits near $9.5 billion. The asset has lost 3% in the last 24 hours and 6% over the week. Despite the decline, the price remains near the upper end of the range.

$SOL has been consolidating for almost 1.5 years now.

It had a false breakout in Jan 2025, and then a false breakdown in April 2025.

Interestingly, this is very similar to a 2023 fractal which led to a major breakout.

Right now, Solana network activity is still strong while… pic.twitter.com/vxrANmLLds

False Breakouts May Have Cleared the Field

The January breakout failed to hold above resistance and reversed. In April, a quick drop below $115 was also undone. These events may have removed short-term speculation and reset the order book.

The current range between $185 and $195 is holding. SOL is pressing against the upper boundary again. BitBull stated, 

“All it needs now is a weekly close above $230, and SOL parabolic run will start.” 

Price behavior near this level could shape the next phase.

Trendline Break Signals Possible Shift

In parallel, analyst RJTTheOG pointed out that SOL has broken out of a long-standing downtrend. Following that move, the price gained over 40%. The next resistance is near $206, followed by the all-time high at $295.

RJTTheOG said, 

“In this bull run, a move 20–30% above its all-time high is on the table.” 

Interestingly, that would place targets in the $355–$385 zone. Analyst Jonathan Carter also identified $180 as an area to watch. He noted that price holding above this level could open a move toward $205, $225, and $268.

As CryptoPotato reported, Solana will release 465,000 tokens this week, worth approximately $87.6 million. These are part of broader token unlocks across the crypto market, totaling more than $686 million. Market watchers will follow how SOL behaves as new supply enters circulation.