CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has declared that the long-standing Bitcoin (BTC) cycle theory is “dead,” and has issued a public apology for his earlier bearish predictions.

Ju, once a proponent of cycle-based forecasting, where he advocated buying when whales accumulate and selling when retail floods in, acknowledged that “the pattern no longer holds” amid a structural transformation led by institutional investors.

The Death of the Bitcoin Cycle Theory

In a July 25 post on X, Ju explained that old whales are selling to new long-term whales, adding that holders now outnumber traders and traditional trading strategies now feel “pointless.”

My mistake was ignoring this shift in my bull cycle is over call, wrote the CQ founder. I sincerely apologize if my prediction impacted your investment. I’ll be more careful with forecasts and focus on providing data-driven insights.

For years, BTC’s price movements followed a familiar rhythm: whales accumulated early, retail FOMO kicked in near the top, and a bear market ensued. However, CryptoQuant’s latest on-chain analysis supports Ju’s new stance. The report shows that in contrast to past cycles where retail investors dominated euphoric peaks, today’s rally is characterized by their absence.

Retail selling has intensified, particularly on platforms like Binance, where inflows from small traders surged from $12 billion to $16 billion over the past month. Instead, its deep-pocketed investors, institutions, high-volume wallets, and ETFs that are aggressively accumulating. Whales Screener data from earlier in the week supports this, showing over $200 million in BTC was withdrawn from exchanges in one 24-hour period to signal long-term conviction further.

Google Trends has also shown muted retail interest, a stark contrast to the social media frenzy of 2021. This cycle looks nothing like the madness of 2021, CryptoQuant noted. Quiet and smart money is currently on stage.

Last year, Stockmoney Lizards, another prominent analyst account, made observations similar to Ju’s. They argued this current cycle “marks the beginning of something different,” with Wall Street and TradFi institutions entering the market in droves. “Mass adoption has started,” they claimed, suggesting future BTC market behavior may resemble the SP 500 more than the boom-bust patterns of days gone by.

A Few Believers Remain

However, not everyone agrees. On July 16, pseudonymous analyst CryptoCon pushed back against the growing debate over Bitcoin’s future trajectory, asserting that the four-year halving cycle is still intact.

People expect the 4-year cycle to die every time. It hasn’t,” they said, projecting a cycle top between October and December 2025.

Amid the debate, BTC is trading at $115,500, a 2.5% dip in the last 24 hours and a 4.7% decline over the past week. This means it is underperforming the broader crypto market, which is down just 1.5% in that period.

The flagship cryptocurrency is now 6.2% below its all-time high set on July 14, though it remains up 8.6% in the last 30 days and nearly 80% year-on-year.