The growing speculation surrounding a potential presidential pardon for Sam Bankman-Fried (SBF) has been fueled by high-profile figures and shifting political tides.

A major Trump ally, Elon Musk, for one, will be shocked if US President Joe Biden does not grant an early pardon to the disgraced former CEO of FTX.

Crypto, Politics, and Pardons

Bankman-Fried, who was convicted in November 2023 on seven charges, including fraud and embezzlement, is currently serving a 25-year sentence for his role in the collapse of the cryptocurrency exchange. However, rumors of a pardon have gained traction, partly due to his significant political connections.

As one of the largest donors to the Democratic Party, Bankman-Frieds ties to key political figures, particularly Biden, have led many to wonder whether his political influence could play a role in securing a pardon. Speculation surrounding the possibility of clemency gained additional attention following comments from Musk, who tweeted that he would be shocked if this doesn’t happen.

This statement aligns with shifting predictions on platforms like Polymarket, where odds for a potential pardon surged from 4% to 13%, indicating a growing belief that SBFs ties to political elites might influence his fate.

SBFs trajectory from crypto wunderkind to convicted fraudster has been one of the most dramatic downfalls in recent financial history. At his peak, he was hailed as a leading figure in the industry, having founded FTX in 2019 and quickly built it into one of the worlds largest exchanges.

He cultivated a public persona as a tech innovator with a commitment to social causes that earned him widespread recognition beyond the crypto circles. His political contributions were massive, with over $5 million donated to Bidens 2020 campaign and nearly all his donations directed toward Democrats.

However, the collapse of FTX in late 2022 exposed a $8 billion hole in customer funds that sent shockwaves through the financial world. While the legal case against him resulted in a conviction, some continue to speculate that a presidential pardon could allow the Biden administration to move on from the scandal.

Ross Ulbrichts Fate Still Unclear

Meanwhile, the odds of Biden pardoning Ross Ulbricht, creator of the Silk Road marketplace, currently stands at 9%. However, Ulbricht could see freedom under Donald Trumps presidency after the president-elect pledged to pardon him earlier this year. Ulbricht was convicted in 2015 on multiple charges, including drug trafficking and money laundering, and sentenced to life in prison.

While libertarian and crypto advocates see him as a symbol of free trade and argue his punishment is unjust, critics highlight Silk Roads links to drug overdoses and allegations that Ulbricht plotted murders to protect his platform. The Silk Road, active between 2011 and 2013, pioneered anonymous online trading using Bitcoin and Tor. Ulbrichts mother, Lyn, led a high-profile campaign to reduce her sons sentence, attracting widespread public support.