TL;DR

ETH lost $4,100 support, triggering fears of further downside toward the $2,750 level. MVRV bands suggest $4,840 must break to confirm recovery; failure risks deeper correction. Price action mirrors 2020 fractal, but bulls must reclaim resistance to avoid extended pullback.

Ethereum Slips Below Crucial Support Zone

Ethereum (ETH) has dropped below the key $4,100 level, breaking down from its recent range and putting bullish momentum on pause. The move follows a sharp correction of nearly 20% over the past two weeks. At the time of writing, ETH trades around $3,900, marking a weekly decline of over 12%.

Analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted the importance of the $4,090 level as a cycle high. “If the weekly closes below the ~$4.1K level,” he stated, “watch closely if theres additional continuation down over the days and weeks following it.” He added that the current move could represent a false breakout, but confirmation would only come if the price starts grinding back up.

Source: Daan Crypto Trades/X A separate chart shared by Trader Tardigrade shows a repeating fractal structure when comparing ETH’s current price pattern to the 2020 cycle. It reflects a V-shaped recovery followed by consolidation below key resistance, similar to the lead-up to Ethereums breakout in the previous bull market.

The asset is currently sitting just below the $4,100 zone, which matches the resistance level shown in the earlier cycle. The setup suggests that if ETH follows the same path, a breakout could follow. However, that would require a clean move above resistance and sustained buying. Trader Tardigrade posted,

$ETH/3-day#Ethereum is gathering momentum for an upcoming Massive Surge pic.twitter.com/lzCqxqYFe7

Support Retest Around 20-Week MA

Michaël van de Poppe identified the current zone between $3,800 and $4,000 as an important area of support. ETH is now approaching the 20-week moving average, which has often acted as a dynamic support level in previous uptrends.

To me, this is the ideal zone to start accumulating positions in $ETH.

Its a higher timeframe support test and approaching the 20-Week MA. pic.twitter.com/X0qwGE8oho

The weekly chart he shared shows a support block that had previously acted as a base for upward moves. If the zone holds, it could stabilize the price. If not, lower levels around $2,850 may be tested.

MVRV Bands Point to Key Resistance and Downside Risk

Ali Martinez used the MVRV Extreme Deviation Pricing Bands to mark the next areas of interest. He noted that $4,840 is the critical level to break in order to reverse the current downtrend. According to the MVRV model, a move above this line could lead to a push toward $5,860.

On the downside, Ali warned that failure to reclaim this level could bring ETH back to $2,750, aligning with the -0.5σ deviation band.

“Fail, and a correction to $2,750 comes into play,” he wrote.

ETH currently trades above the MVRV mean at $3,797, but if that level is lost, downside pressure may increase.