Ethereum’s mid-sized whale cohort is sitting on massive paper gains, reaching levels not seen since the network’s last market peak almost four years ago.

Analyst CryptoOnchain has shared data showing wallets with between 10,000 and 100,000 ETH seeing unrealized profits rise to cycle highs, a sign that historically came right before selling pressure increased.

Whale Wallet Profits Mirror Previous Market Top

According to the analysis, this uptick in unrealized profits among average-sized whales highlights a stage in the cycle where investor psychology can significantly shape price action.

In previous instances, including the 2021 peak, such levels coincided with either large-scale profit-taking or, at a minimum, heightened selling pressure. While the data does not guarantee an imminent correction, it suggests that the market has entered a zone where whale decisions could dictate Ethereum’s near-term trajectory.

“This does not necessarily mean an immediate correction,” wrote CryptoOnchain. “It highlights a critical stage in the cycle where investor psychology and whale behavior could heavily influence price action.”

The timing of these gains is also notable. Ethereum has rallied more than 95% in the last year and 8.7% over the past month, and was trading at $4,591 at the time of this writing, just 6.9% below its record high of $4,946.

Furthermore, in the last week, ETH has oscillated between $4,404 and $4,762, with intraday swings between $4,440 and $4,637 in the past 24 hours. This ideally puts whales in a position of strength, as many of them accumulated at significantly lower levels during Ethereum’s consolidation phase.

Still, the market backdrop is complicating the whale picture. For example, as chartist Ali Martinez reported previously, big investors sold 90,000 ETH worth more than $400 million in just 48 hours, leaving them with only 15.4 million tokens. Those moves may have been opportunistic profit-taking before yesterdays Federal Reserve meeting, but they also showed how quickly whale actions can change the market if sentiment turns.

Institutional Signals and Price Trajectory

Renewed institutional participation is also helping offset the risk of whale-driven sell-offs. Evidence of this was provided by CQ analyst PelinayPA on September 17, who highlighted that Ethereums Fund Market Premium (FMP), which compares futures prices to spot prices, has been steadily rising since July. That trend shows that institutional buyers are willing to pay more than the current price for exposure, which is often seen as a sign of long-term rallies.

Meanwhile, on the charts, ETH remains pinned below the $4,850 resistance level after months of climbing within a steep ascending channel, as noted in CryptoPotato’s latest pulse check. The asset continues to print higher highs and higher lows, supported by a bullish moving-average crossover, yet momentum is fading as traders await a breakout.

If whales decide to lock in profits, ETH could revisit the $4,000 zone. But if they hold, or if institutions absorb the selling, analysts see a realistic chance of the altcoin breaking above $5,000 before the month’s end.