Ripple’s XRP may be flying high above $3 now, but could it crash to under a dollar in the next bear cycle?

That’s the controversial call from popular crypto analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, who recently projected possible post-bull market targets for XRP as low as $0.80, based on historical price cycles and technical patterns.

Bullish Breakout Meets Bearish Warnings

In a July 27 post on X, EGRAG broke down two possible bearish scenarios for XRP based on historical patterns. His first simulation assumed that XRP may follow its 2017 trajectory, potentially hitting $27 from its current price, and subsequently crashing 97% to around $0.80.

“If we anticipate a $27 cycle and experience a similar 97% drop, XRPs next bear market target could be around $0.80. Can you handle that?”

Cycle 2 is a more moderate scenario based on a symmetrical triangle pattern. It models a peak for XRP near $9, followed by an 85% drop that would bring the asset to about $1.30.

“The measured move based on the middle of the symmetrical triangle positions us around $9. If we see a similar bear market decline of 85%, you could be looking to buy back XRP at approximately $1.30.”

In a final word of caution, he added:

“What goes up must come down, but the question is: how far down?”

Despite the bleak outlook, he noted that “OGs” who endured previous crashes might welcome sub-$0.30 buying zones again. Still, he emphasized that market cycles are unavoidable and that everything follows the same pattern, even the universe itself.

Market Reactions and Key Levels to Watch

EGRAG’s take counters growing optimism around XRP’s recent surge. As mentioned previously by technical analyst CryptoVizArt, XRP broke out of a 7-month range earlier this month, touching a new multi-year high of $3.65 before pulling back to retest support at $3.00.

Institutional activity has helped boost the rally, with firms like Nature’s Miracle Holding (NMHI) allocating $20 million to an XRP treasury program. On-chain data also shows whales accumulating 280 million XRP in recent days, signaling confidence in further upside.

At the time of writing, the world’s third-largest cryptocurrency was trading at $3.26, recovering 2.6% in the last 24 hours, but still down 8.6% over the past week, per CoinGecko. Despite short-term softness, the asset is still up 49.1% this month and 438.7% year-over-year.

While analyst Jonathan Carter suggests that a bounce from $3 could propel XRP toward $4.60, a breakdown may just as easily trigger a retest of $2.50.