Bitcoin’s latest bull cycle is building toward a potential climax in late 2025, with analysts pointing to a slowing yet extended growth curve that could see the world’s largest cryptocurrency hit new highs of $150,000.

Supply scarcity and institutional holding patterns are adding weight to the projection, though there remains a risk of sharp corrections.

Cycle Analysis Suggests Slower Growth but Extended Peaks

Analyst Egrag Crypto today outlined a technical framework on X, comparing Bitcoin’s performance across four major cycles against the SP 500. According to the commentator, each successive cycle has delivered smaller gains, but the uptrends have lasted longer.

For example, in Cycle 1, the cryptocurrency’s degree of growth reached 61%, followed by 42% in Cycle 2 and 35% in Cycle 3. However, for the current cycle, Egrag estimates a peak growth of 27% by December 2025.

While it marks quite a drop from earlier cycles, it does not indicate the end of momentum. The market watcher stated that growth deceleration often results in extended cycles, which could stretch the current bull phase further into the first quarter of 2026.

Their calculations show that the average decrease between cycles is 11.3%, while the overall drop from Cycle 1 to Cycle 4 is roughly 56%. They believe this gradual reduction reflects a maturing market instead of one running on fumes.

“The chart is trending upwards, but the degree of growth in each cycle is decreasing,” Egrag noted, suggesting that December could bring the cycle’s next peak before a cooling-off period sets in.

The debate on the cycle’s duration has become a central topic among experts lately. Previously, analyst CryptoBirb claimed that the current bull run is 93% complete and could peak between late October and mid-November of 2025.

However, this view is not universally held, with other commentators suggesting the traditional four-year cycle, historically tied to Bitcoin’s halving events, may be breaking down due to greater institutional involvement.

Illiquid Supply Points to $150K Potential

Meanwhile, a separate report from CryptoQuant highlighted a state of liquidity scarcity on major exchanges. According to pseudonymous analyst Arab Chain, Bitcoin’s illiquid supply, which refers to the BTC held in long-term storage, has returned to historically high levels, while the amount readily available for trading has shrunk.

This dynamic usually creates upward pressure by reducing sell-side availability. In Arab Chain’s assessment, the market is in a fragile bull run, simultaneously poised for further gains yet vulnerable to swift corrections.

The expert argues that BTC could push beyond $150,000 in 2025, particularly if whales and institutions maintain their long-term holding strategies. However, he believes that if large holders were to release supply into thin markets suddenly, the lack of liquidity could trigger a sharp retreat toward the $90,000–$100,000 range.