TL;DR

Former SEC employee John Reed Stark predicts the Commission may soon pause the Ripple appeal, citing recent agreements and internal changes at the regulator. Attorney Jeremy Hogan speculates that the legal battle against the company may conclude before a spot XRP ETF is approved, with firms like Grayscale and Bitwise already preparing for such an investment product.

Big News Incoming?

The legal tussle between Ripple and the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has been ongoing for over four years. However, its eventual resolution in the short term seems more likely after some recent developments. 

According to John Reed Stark (former director of the SEC Internet Enforcement Office), the watchdog might soon pause all crypto-related appeals. He based his prediction on certain factors, including the mutual agreement between the Commission and Binance. 

Earlier this month, the two parties requested the magistrates to pause their lawsuit for 60 days. After that, both plan to submit a joint status report to assess whether an extension of the stay is warranted. 

I expect well see other non-fraud cases (i.e. Ripple, Coinbase, Kraken, and others) follow suit in this manner, Eleanor Terrett (a journalist at Fox Business) weighed in at the time. 

Stark claimed that some of the changes at the SECs management team also suggest that the appeal against Ripple could be paused or fully withdrawn. Recall that the regulator recently transferred one of its top crypto litigators, Jorge Tenreiro, to its computer systems department. 

The law expert joined the agency more than a decade ago, gradually climbing the ladder to become Chief Litigation Counsel in 2024. Tenreiro signed the SECs notice of appeal in its case against Ripple.

Yet, this SEC trial lawyer, who championed the victories of Coinbase and Binance, is now glaringly absent from both the Coinbase and Binance pleadings, ordered to pack his pencils and legal pads and transfer to the SECs IT department, Stark stated.

When to Expect a Settlement?

Stark is not the only person speculating on the future developments of the Ripple v. SEC case. Last week, the popular American lawyer Jeremy Hogan suggested that the final outcome of the lawsuit is more likely to come before the potential approval of a spot XRP ETF in the US. 

Not because it has to happen in that order, but because the ETFs will just take longer to dot the is and cross the ts, he opined.

Some of the companies that have revealed their plans to introduce such an investment vehicle include Grayscale, WisdomTree, Bitwise, 21Shares, and more. According to Polymarket, the odds of approval from the SEC before the end of 2025 are 78%.