Bitcoin briefly dropped below $100,000 during the 12-day conflict involving Israeli and US strikes on Iran, along with retaliatory attacks on Israel and US bases in Qatar.

Markets were shaken until US President Donald Trump confirmed that both Israel and Iran had agreed to a ceasefire. This announcement triggered a rebound in global risk sentiment. As investor confidence returned, Bitcoin began a fresh rally, breaking through the $106,000 level on Wednesday.

New data suggest that the crypto asset could see a potential surge to $120K amid ongoing geopolitical uncertainty.

Beginning of a New Bull Leg?

Bitcoin could be poised for a sharp upward move, potentially reaching $120,000, after successfully reclaiming its 50-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). According to CryptoQuant, the 50-day EMA is widely regarded as a critical technical indicator, and often serves as support during corrections in a broader bullish trend.

Historically, when Bitcoin dips below this level and quickly regains it, the market tends to respond with a rapid 10-20% surge. This pattern is playing out again: following a brief pullback below the EMA, Bitcoin has closed above it for three consecutive days, which is indicative of a renewed bullish momentum.

CryptoQuant explained that this recovery could kickstart a new leg up in the ongoing cycle. However, they caution that external geopolitical factors, particularly developments related to the US, Israel, and Iran, may inject short-term volatility into the market. In such an environment, traders should avoid excessive leverage and maintain a risk-managed approach. While technical indicators currently support a bullish outlook, broader macro and geopolitical uncertainty continue to pose potential headwinds.

Despite this, the reclaim of the 50-day EMA remains a significant milestone for Bitcoin, which strengthens the case for a possible rally toward the six-figure mark.

Psychological Floor

Beyond technical indicators, on-chain metrics also support Bitcoins current momentum, especially the behavior of short-term holders.

The Short-Term Holder Realized Price (STH-RP), which now stands at $98K, continues to act as a key psychological and technical support for Bitcoin. As it edges toward $100K, each uptick reinforces six figures as the new perceived fair value. Bitcoins spot price is $106.4K, a 7.2% premium over STH-RP, which suggests reduced froth.

Recent sharp bounces off STH-RP confirm a bullish structure, while long-term holders remain unmoved, with their cost basis at $32K. This veteran supply lock-up limits downside risk. As long as the crypto asset holds above STH-RP, the uptrend of higher lows and higher highs remains intact; a break below would signal a potential correction