Bitcoins Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has once again slipped below its 365-day simple moving average (SMA365), which has raised questions about whether the current cycle is deviating from historical norms.

A new report now suggests that the market is evolving into a staircase-like bull cycle defined by gradual corrections.

Has Bitcoin Outgrown Parabolic Runs?

Traditionally, during bull markets, MVRV tends to stay above this level except in cases of extreme “Black Swan” events. This trend largely held until 2024, when the introduction of US spot Bitcoin ETFs and a surge in institutional inflows appeared to alter market dynamics.

That year, MVRV dipped under SMA365 twice, but each time rebounded quickly and coincided with Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs. CryptoQuant found that the market is now facing a third test of this pattern. Analysts note that todays US inflation data supports expectations for three Federal Reserve rate cuts before the end of 2025, which is a dovish outlook that could provide the catalyst for MVRV to reclaim higher ground.

If history repeats, this could set the stage for fresh highs before year-end. Market observers suggest that Bitcoins bull cycle has pivoted toward a more staircase-like structure, with measured advances and corrections, rather than the sharp parabolic rallies seen in past cycles.

Derivatives Signals Healthier Market Structure

A similar trend is seen across derivatives as activity in this sector takes center stage in the Bitcoin market. In fact, Glassnode found that futures and options are helping absorb selling while guiding price action. For instance, the Volume Delta Bias, which tracks deviations of cumulative volume delta from its 90-day median, rebounded at $108K and indicated broad seller fatigue across platforms such as Binance and Bybit.

Even as prices saw a modest uptick, the 3-month annualized futures basis remains under 10%, hinting at steady leverage demand and a market leaning toward accumulation rather than speculative extremes.

The immediate test lies at $114,000, a level seen as crucial for restoring market confidence and drawing in new inflows. If BTC manages to hold this level, it could affirm the strength of this bull phase, while a drop below risks renewed stress for short-term holders, and ultimately exposes downside targets around $108,000 and $93,000, respectively.