TL;DR

Nearly 400 million PI tokens are now held on exchanges, with major unlocks ahead, raising concerns about increased sell pressure and potential downside risk. After a sharp rally driven by speculation and excitement, PI dropped over 50% following the projects $100M initiative reveal, reflecting a classic buy the rumor, sell the news pattern.

PI Peaks on This Front

Earlier today (May 19), the X user MOON JEFF (who often touches upon different news about Pi Network) estimated that the number of PI tokens on exchanges had reached an all-time high of almost 400 million.

OKX leads the pack, with a balance of over 117 million coins, while Bitget comes second with a stash of approximately 107.7 million.

MOON JEFF added that the figure might rise further after the unlocks scheduled for the next 24 hours. Data shows that over 7 million coins will be released on May 19, whereas the total unlock set for the following 30 days equals almost 270 million PI. The record day is expected to be May 28, when more than 15 million tokens will be freed up. 

PI Token Unlock Schedule. Source: Piscan The aforementioned factors suggest a potential bearish perspective for the price in the short term. The inflow of assets to exchanges could indicate that holders are preparing to cash out. The major token unlocks also increase the selling pressure since it will give some investors the opportunity to part with coins theyve been waiting for a long time.

Price Outlook

PI was at the forefront of gains between May 8 and May 12. Back then, the team behind Pi Network infused excitement by promising to publish a big announcement in the following week. Some X users speculated the upcoming disclosure could be the long-awaited asset listing on Binance. The hype could have been among the reasons that fueled a sharp rally, sending the price soaring nearly 200% to over $1.70, its highest in two months.

On May 14, the project disclosed the launch of a $100 million initiative (held in PI and USD) to invest in startups and businesses that advance the utility and real-adoption of PI. 

The coins valuation dropped significantly shortly before and especially after the announcement. The downtrend continued, and PI tumbled to a local bottom of nearly $0.65 in the following days, resembling a classic buy the rumor, sell the news event.

In the past few days, PI has recovered some of its losses and currently trades at around $0.72 (per CoinGeckos data), but this still represents a whopping 52% weekly decline.

PI Price, Source: CoinGecko