TL;DR

Ripples legal battle with the SEC continues more than four years after its start, but some believe a settlement could be reached soon. The regulators stance on crypto may shift under new leadership, raising hopes for both a resolution in the case against Ripple and progress on the spot XRP ETF filings.

Which Might Happen First?

Despite the recent changes in the US SEC leadership, the legal tussle between Ripple and the regulator remains ongoing. Recall that it all started in December 2020 when the agency sued the company and some of its executives over allegations of conducting an unregistered securities offering by selling XRP.

Ripple secured some partial court victories in the past few years, which seemingly tipped the scales in its favor. The case was close to its official resolution in August 2024 when Judge Analisa Torres ordered the firm to pay a $125 million civil penalty for violating federal securities laws through its institutional sales of XRP.

Ripple was ready to settle the fine (which represented just a fraction of the $2 billion the SEC initially asked for), but the Commission appealed a 2023 verdict set by the same judge, thus prolonging the case indefinitely. 

According to some legal experts, though, a settlement might happen in the following months. The popular American attorney Jeremy Hogan recently claimed that such a development is more likely to come before the potential approval of a spot XRP ETF in the US. 

Not because it has to happen in that order, but because the ETFs will just take longer to dot the is and cross the ts, he assumed.

Some of the well-known names that have already displayed intentions to launch an XRP ETF in America are Grayscale, WisdomTree, Bitwise, 21Shares, and more. James Seyffart an ETF research analyst at Bloomberg recently set the odds of approval of such a product before the end of 2025 at 65%. Moreover, he suggested that the SEC might acknowledge some of the XRP ETF filings as soon as this week. 

Hogan agreed that the regulatory approval can happen fast but reminded that the entire process is quite complex and could be fulfilled in 8-12 months. 

Ceasefire Incoming?

Earlier this week, Binance and the US SEC jointly requested the magistrates to pause their lawsuit for 60 days. Eleanor Terrett, a journalist at Fox Business, explained that both parties will use the time to issue a mutual status report to determine whether a continuation of the stay is warranted. 

The development caused the XRP Army to raise their hopes that the agency and Ripple might temporarily bury the hatches as well. 

After all, the new Chairman of the securities regulator, Mark Uyeda, has previously revealed his support for the cryptocurrency industry. His stance is much different from that of his predecessor, Gary Gensler. The latter was considered a huge enemy of the digital asset sector, with the Commission filing numerous lawsuits against crypto businesses during his tenure.