Ether prices could tumble a further 20% from current levels if history rhymes and the correction deepens this month.

Now that Ethereum has run the prior all-time highs in August, “I think ETH will drop back to its 21-week EMA [exponential moving average],” said ICT Crypto founder Benjamin Cowen on Monday.

This could send ETH back to around $3,500 before it recovers and pushes to a new all-time high at the end of the year.

“A lot of people will get upset with this idea, but this has been the plan since ETH ‘went home’ in April,” he said, referring to the  April dump below $1,500.

Now that Ethereum has run the prior All Time Highs in August, I think ETH will drop back to its 21W EMA.

A lot of people will get upset with this idea, but this has been the plan since ETH went home in April (new ATH, then pullback to 21W EMA and find support). https://t.co/WLPBK3mHJ3 pic.twitter.com/2AalzbsMdb

Slumptember Has Arrived

During the past two bull market years, there has been a major correction in September. According to CoinGlass, six of the past ten Septembers have seen price declines for ETH, with the average loss around 6%. However, ETH corrections have been much larger in bull market years.

In September 2017, ETH fell by 21.6% and in the same month in 2021, it lost 12.5%. The asset recovered to notch a new all-time high a few months after, so this month could provide a buy-the-dip opportunity. The longer-term outlook for Ethereum is extremely bullish now that Wall Street has started to embrace the asset.

Additionally, whales are still buying, with Arkham Intelligence reporting on Monday that a whale holding $5 billion of Bitcoin just bought $1 billion in ETH and has now staked it all.

‘DeFi Dad’ posted some Ether ‘moon math’ this week, predicting that the asset will command a much higher market capitalization than its current $523 billion.

“Based on its position as the most trusted and reliable world ledger for stablecoins, RWAs, DeFi native assets and TradFi’s default choice for tokenization… easy to imagine ETH commanding a market cap of $35 trillion or more by 2032/2034, whenever ETH inevitably catches up to or flips BTC market cap.”

Meanwhile, Ethereum educator Anthony Sassano observed that spot Ether ETFs and treasuries bought over 33 times more ETH than was issued by the network in August.

ETH purchased in August by entity:

ETH ETFs: ~860,000 ETH

ETH treasury companies: ~1.7 million ETH

Newly net issued ETH in August: ~76,709 ETH

The ETH ETFs and treasuries bought over 33x more ETH than was net issued by the network in August.

Accelerate!

ETH Price Retreats

Despite these clearly bullish long-term prospects, weak retail hands keep selling the asset.

Ether has retreated again today, falling from an intraday high of $4,480 to a low of $4,250 in late trading on Monday. ETH had recovered to reach $4,350 during the Tuesday morning Asian trading session, but it has been printing lower highs and lower lows for the past week as the downtrend continues.

The chances are that this is likely to continue for most of this month before a recovery in Q4.