TL;DR

Bitcoin tests $118K resistance, with $114K support key to confirming the end of correction. On-chain data shows cautious distribution, with no strong accumulation trend among major BTC holding groups. Realized cap rose $625B in 18 months, surpassing inflows from BTC’s first 15 years.

Resistance Levels in Focus

Bitcoin was trading near $115,000 at press time, just under the $117,500–$118,000 resistance zone. According to analyst Michaël van de Poppe,

#Bitcoin faces the final resistance before were going to be seeing a new all-time high.

Breaking through the $117.5K-118K and well be going towards a new ATH.

Important week, really looking forward to the volatility of this week! pic.twitter.com/4U9Gr0guS0

He added that a breakout above this level could trigger a move toward $123,000, while this week’s Federal Reserve rate cut could add to volatility.

Price action depicts higher lows and reinforces the trend since early September, underlining strength in the current movement. RSI is elevated, indicative of strong momentum, but it stands close to overbought territory.

Should resistance prove too strong for Bitcoins bullish efforts, then the spotlight shifts to $114,800 for near-term support, followed by $112,000 for demand support, then deeper, farther down at $103,000.

Weekly Close Above $114K

Analyst Rekt Capital noted Bitcoin’s weekly close above $114,000, calling it a step toward reclaiming its Reaccumulation Range. They wrote,

“Successful reclaim of $114k as support would not just enable upside but also confirm a likely end to the corrective phase.”

Charts shared by Rekt Capital highlight a repeating pattern since 2023, where former resistance levels turned into support zones before the price continued higher. The current structure mirrors those earlier setups, with a successful retest of $114,000 potentially opening the path to $130,000.

Source: Rekt Capital/X

Distribution and Market Positioning

On-chain firm Glassnode reported that distribution among Bitcoin holders has slowed but not fully reversed.

“Most $BTC cohorts remain below the 0.5 threshold, indicating sell-side pressure persists. No group is showing strong accumulation (0.8),” they stated.

The market remains in a neutral-to-distribution range, with no clear signs of renewed accumulation among long-term holders.

This suggests that while the price has held firm, supply dynamics remain cautious. Traders are watching closely to see if stronger inflows shift the balance toward accumulation.

Analyst BitBull pointed to realized cap data showing record inflows. They wrote,

More money entered Bitcoin in the last 18 months than in its first 15 years combined.

That’s what Realized Cap shows:

▪️ 2009–2024 (15y): $435B

▪️ 2024–2025 (1.5y): $625B

Realized Cap = the value of $BTC at the price they last moved on-chain → a direct measure of capital… pic.twitter.com/3vK0KVVtfg

Data shows realized cap grew by $625 billion between 2024 and 2025, compared to $435 billion from 2009 to 2024.

Realized cap measures Bitcoin at the price each coin last moved on-chain. This metric suggests BTC is not only holding value but is absorbing unprecedented levels of real capital in the current cycle.

Outlook

Bitcoin stands at a decisive level. Breaking above $118,000 with $114,000 reclaimed as support would signal the end of its corrective phase and pave the way for higher levels. Failure to hold could bring short-term pullbacks before another attempt higher. With Fed policy shifts ahead, volatility is expected to remain high across markets, keeping Bitcoin’s next move in sharp focus.