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As Fed mulls cutting asset purchases, will markets ignore this hawkish commentary?
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As Fed mulls cutting asset purchases, will markets ignore this hawkish commentary?
May 26, 2021 6:20 AM

As the US economy recovers from pandemic-induced shocks top Federal Reserve officials are contemplating a discussion on tapering at the central bank's upcoming policy meeting.

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Vice-Chair Richard Clarida has recently joined several officials who have talked about tapering. They all echoed the same thing: At a point in upcoming meetings, we will begin discussing tapering the asset-buying program.

"There will come a time in upcoming meetings, we'll be at the point where we can begin to discuss scaling back the pace of the asset purchases," Clarida said in an interview with Yahoo Finance. However, he added, it will depend on the flow of data we get.

He said that the central bank would be able to curb an outbreak of inflation and engineer a "soft landing" without throwing the country's economic recovery off track.

Fed's next policy meet is scheduled for June 15-16. Currently, Fed spends $120 billion monthly in asset purchases. The buying program aims to ease borrowing costs and encourage investment and hiring.

These tapering suggestions reflect a shift from Jerome Powell's stance a month ago. Earlier, he had said it is "not yet" time to have this conversation.

"We’re still a long way from our goals. And it’s important that financial conditions remain accommodative to support the achievement of those goals," he had said.

But more recently — and Fed's policy meeting minutes in late April suggest this — some policymakers have acknowledged they are closer to debating pulling back some of the crisis support.

Earlier on Tuesday, San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly told CNBC that "we are talking about talking about tapering." "I want to make sure," she said, "it is not about doing anything now."

But she is bullish about the fall. The economy is still 8 million jobs shorter than the pre-pandemic numbers. So the policy is in "a very good place ... we need to be patient," she added.

This time, however, Fed policymakers have promised to give advance notice to the market before changing the stance. Last time (in 2013), when Fed "announced" tapering asset purchases, bond prices bottomed out and yields shot up due to the sheer shock of it. And the actual tapering hadn't even happened yet.

Yet, even as the taper talks catch fire, the market is broadly ignoring this conversation. Look at US equities for example, after Clarida's comments on Tuesday, there was no severe move.

Wall Street largely closed flat, with S&P 500 and DJIA falling 0.2 percent and the Nasdaq falling less than 0.1 percent. Rates, too, did very well, commodities showed no real untoward incident. So the question arises: Will this reaction continue? Or will the market start to focus on this in the time to come?

(Edited by : Abhishek Jha)

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