Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is trading near $115,500 on Monday, stabilizing ahead of two pivotal macro events that could shape global liquidity and risk sentiment this week.

Fed's QT Decision Could Shift Liquidity Flows

Markets are positioning for Wednesday's Federal Reserve meeting, where policymakers will decide on interest rates and the balance-sheet runoff known as quantitative tightening (QT).

Most traders expect the Fed to signal or announce an end to QT after recent comments from Chair Jerome Powell suggested the central bank is "ready" to halt balance-sheet reduction.

A pause would inject dollar liquidity into the financial system and typically supports risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Conversely, if the Fed keeps QT running and tones down rate-cut expectations, conditions may tighten and weigh on crypto markets.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. ( JPM ) and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. ( GS ) now expect the Fed to formally end QT this week.

Such a shift would immediately alter liquidity conditions across global markets and could spark renewed momentum in digital assets.

Trump–Xi Summit Adds Geopolitical Layer

President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to meet Thursday.

U.S. Treasury officials described the tone as "very positive," with both sides reportedly close to extending the current trade truce.

A de-escalation would generally lift risk appetite, support equities, and ease dollar strength — all factors that favor Bitcoin.

A breakdown, however, could revive tariff threats and push investors back toward the dollar, creating near-term pressure on crypto assets.

BTC Technical Structure Nears Key Breakout

BTC Price Analysis (Source: TradingView)

Technical Analysis: Bitcoin is testing a descending trendline drawn from the September peak, currently near the $116,300 area.

A daily close above this level would mark the first confirmed breakout since early October.

Such a move could extend toward the $119,000 to $120,000 region, where supertrend resistance is concentrated.

A sustained rally beyond that range would place the prior $124,000 high back in view.

Support remains clustered between $108,000 and $112,000, reinforced by the 20-, 50-, and 100-day exponential moving averages.

A breakdown below that band would expose the rising trendline from April, which runs near $100,000 to $104,000.

Momentum readings continue to improve, though confirmation still depends on a decisive move above the $116,300 resistance.

Volatility Looms as Macro Meets Technicals

BTC Uptober Returns (Source: Coinglass)

Bitcoin's "Uptober" pattern remains intact, with the token finally gaining 0.86% this month after several volatile sessions.

Price behavior around Federal Open Market Committee decisions is typically volatile, and traders expect a repeat this week.

Analysts point out that Bitcoin often mirrors shifts in global and U.S. liquidity conditions, including movements in M2 money supply.

Periods of easier policy and expanding liquidity have historically supported Bitcoin, while tighter financial settings tend to cap performance.

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