Geoffrey Kendrick, Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, has expressed renewed confidence in his long-term prediction that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) will reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, citing increased Federal Reserve rate cut probabilities.

What Happened: In a detailed analysis released Tuesday, Kendrick remains unfazed by near-term volatility driven by Donald Trump administration tariff uncertainties and recession concerns, arguing that these factors strengthen his bullish outlook for the cryptocurrency.

His stance comes as risk assets, including Bitcoin, face downward pressure, yet he sees the current environment as reinforcing his earlier forecast.

Kendrick's analysis highlights Bitcoin's recent performance, noting a decline that brought its price close to the Nov. 6, 2024, post-election range of $69,000 to $76,500.

He compared Bitcoin's 30-day implied annualized volatility—currently at 55%—to the “Magnificent Seven” U.S. stocks, finding that Bitcoin's losses align with this group on a volatility-adjusted basis since President Trump's inauguration.

"I would argue that BTC has traded solidly within this mag 7 + BTC group, on a vol adjusted basis for sure," Kendrick stated, suggesting the cryptocurrency's struggles reflect broader risk asset weakness rather than specific digital asset issues.

Tesla saw the steepest decline, while Meta and Apple performed best, with others mirroring Bitcoin's trajectory.

The analyst outlined two potential catalysts for a market recovery: tariff clarity, which he deems unlikely, or an accelerated Fed rate cut, with the May meeting's odds shifting from 50% to 75%, which he considers possible.

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Despite Bitcoin hovering above the Nov. 6 high of $76,500, Kendrick warned that a break below this level could trigger a swift drop to $69,000.

However, he remains focused on the long term.

"My longer term thesis remains undaunted by this near term noise/frustration. In fact given all this noise increases Fed rate cut chances I am more emboldened in my longer term view," he asserted, emphasizing that economic uncertainty bolsters his $200,000 target.

What’s Next: Supporting Kendrick's perspective, Rock Zhang, Founder and CEO of Network3, an AI Layer2 platform, provided additional context on the macroeconomic landscape.

"The upcoming release from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) will add colour to what we already know, that inflation is still too high," Zhang said, noting that an early Fed rate cut could spark equity downturn fears if tied to recessionary indicators like rising unemployment or slowing consumer spending.

"If economic data deteriorates rapidly, this might force the Fed's hand to act, but the market's reaction will depend on whether cuts are seen as proactive or as a response to recessionary indicators,” he said, suggesting that Fed actions could shape market dynamics, potentially benefiting Bitcoin over time.

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Image created using artificial intelligence with Midjourney.