financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
BofA Global Research moves Fed rate cut forecast to October from December
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
BofA Global Research moves Fed rate cut forecast to October from December
Oct 3, 2025 7:38 AM

(Reuters) -Bank of America Global Research on Friday pulled forward its forecast for the next Federal Reserve interest rate cut to October from December, citing signs of a softening labor market.

It remains the only major Wall Street brokerage forecasting just one more 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed this year, while others such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley expect cuts at both of the Fed's upcoming meetings.

BofA warned there is a risk the Fed could "over-ease."

The U.S. government shutdown, which began on Wednesday, has disrupted the release of key economic data that the Fed relies on to evaluate whether conditions warrant a rate cut.

The release of the closely watched monthly jobs report, originally scheduled for Friday, has been delayed due to the government shutdown, leaving investors to interpret alternative indicators that point to a cooling labor market and reinforce expectations of a rate cut.

BofA says the soft trend in labor data is already strong enough to justify a rate cut, regardless of whether the NFP report is available or not before Fed's October meeting.

Investors are pricing in a 98% probability of a 25-basis-point rate reduction in October and a 90% likelihood of another similar cut in December, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool.

(Reporting by Joel Jose in Bengaluru; Editing by Krishna Chandts Eluri)

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Argentina hopes to finalize US $20 billion swap line before midterm vote
Argentina hopes to finalize US $20 billion swap line before midterm vote
Oct 15, 2025
(Reuters) -Argentina's Economy Minister Luis Caputo said he hopes to very soon execute a framework that will contain the terms of a $20 billion currency swap the U.S. recently agreed with Argentina's central bank, ideally before this month's midterm election. President Javier Milei is seeking to expand his minority presence in Argentina's legislature in the October 26 vote, and U.S....
Argentina hopes to finalize US $20 billion swap line before midterm vote
Argentina hopes to finalize US $20 billion swap line before midterm vote
Oct 15, 2025
(Reuters) -Argentina's Economy Minister Luis Caputo said he hopes to very soon execute a framework that will contain the terms of a $20 billion currency swap the U.S. recently agreed with Argentina's central bank, ideally before this month's midterm election. President Javier Milei is seeking to expand his minority presence in Argentina's legislature in the October 26 vote, and U.S....
US banks tap Fed repo facility as overnight rates climb, signaling funding strain
US banks tap Fed repo facility as overnight rates climb, signaling funding strain
Oct 15, 2025
NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. banks borrowed $6.5 billion from the Federal Reserve's Standing Repo Facility (SRF) on Wednesday, central bank data showed, and repurchase rates rose, suggesting tightness in meeting funding obligations with a large net Treasuries settlement due this week. That was the biggest daily borrowing from the Fed since the COVID-19 pandemic, excluding end-of-quarter periods. The SRF acts...
US may seek more stakes in strategic companies to counter China, Bessent says
US may seek more stakes in strategic companies to counter China, Bessent says
Oct 15, 2025
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The Trump administration will seek to tighten control over strategic sectors by taking more equity stakes in key companies to counter China's economic policies and export restrictions, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday. Bessent told a CNBC event that China's dramatic new restrictions on rare earth minerals and magnets demonstrates the need for the U.S. to be...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved