11:56 AM EDT, 04/29/2024 (MT Newswires) -- US dollar exchange rates have ebbed from year-to-date highs in many instances over recent days but any further bouts of weakness could be likely to offer buying opportunities, according to strategists at Barclays.

"A positioning adjustment that would see the USD trade somewhat weaker was overdue," Barclays strategists said in a Sunday note to clients. "The key question for us is whether this is the right time to re-enter fresh dollar longs."

Falling S&P Global PMI surveys of the manufacturing and services sectors, weaker-than-expected first quarter growth figures and suspected FX intervention by Japanese authorities have all helped take the wind from the dollar's sails over the week to Monday following a strong start to the year for all major US exchange rates.

However, speculative market positioning and sentiment could mean that weakness is likely to extend further in the short-term, according to Barclays strategists: markets already expect Chairman Jerome Powell to sound hawkish following Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision and have already cut back the number of interest rate cuts expected this year, while the consensus expectation for the job gain in Friday's non-farm payrolls report is at its highest level since September 2022.

"The bar is already high-and rising-for large data surprises," Barclays strategists said. "At the same time, a softer NFP print could significantly weigh on the USD given still-extended sentiment and positioning."

It's not uncommon for a blowout payrolls report to be followed by weakness in the subsequent month's survey and the March blowout of 303,000, combined with lofty expectations for April's report, could mean that Friday's data it's now apt to disappoint.

It's not clear if any resulting weakness in the dollar would be enough for Barclays' strategists to advocate buying the greenback afresh, though they would be viewing it as a prospective buying opportunity rather than the beginning of a downtrend.

"In all, we remain patient and look for more opportune levels and appropriate catalysts before we re-engage into fresh dollar longs," the Barclays team said.