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Carlyle releases shadow labor report showing subdued US hiring in September
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Carlyle releases shadow labor report showing subdued US hiring in September
Oct 7, 2025 5:50 AM

(Reuters) -Carlyle Group ( CG ) released a set of U.S. economic data on Tuesday, including a sharply lower estimate for September jobs growth, underscoring efforts by private firms to provide insights as the government shutdown stalls official statistics.

The global investment firm estimated that U.S. employers added just 17,000 jobs last month, far below the 54,000 expected in the nonfarm payrolls report, which was scheduled to be released last week but was delayed.

The firm's internal indicators also showed GDP growth running at a 2.7% annualized pace in September, a 3.8% drop in energy prices and a 3.3% increase in prices for services, excluding shelter.

With official statistics delayed, investors are increasingly turning to alternative sources for real-time insights, and data-rich firms are positioning themselves as stopgap providers of economic intelligence.

The U.S. government shutdown has now entered its seventh day, and is showing little sign of resolution.

"With one of the largest private company datasets, Carlyle can provide timely insights that help investors and policymakers navigate these dynamics when official data is unavailable," said Jason Thomas, head of global research and investment strategy at Carlyle.

Carlyle's data was based on its portfolio of companies and real estate investments.

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