*
China's manufacturing PMI remains below growth threshold
at 49.8
*
Non-manufacturing PMI slows to 50.0 from 50.3 in August
*
Separate private sector factory activity PMI at 51.2 from
50.1
*
Overall economic impulse still points to soft underbelly
*
Markets waiting for clarity on trade deal with U.S.
BEIJING, Sept 30 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing
activity shrank for a sixth month in September, an official
survey showed on Tuesday, suggesting producers are waiting for
further stimulus to boost domestic demand, as well as clarity on
a U.S. trade deal.
The official purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 49.8
in September versus 49.4 in August, below the 50-mark separating
growth from contraction, but beating a median forecast of 49.6
in a Reuters poll.
The prolonged slump underlines the twin pressures on China's
economy: domestic demand has failed to mount a durable recovery
in the years since the pandemic while U.S. President Donald
Trump's tariffs have squeezed Chinese factories as well as
overseas firms that buy components.
All the same, a separate private-sector survey of factory
managers showed the fastest expansion since March, buoyed by
rising new orders and accelerated production growth, including
an uptick in new export orders.
The two surveys cover different pools of producers, with the
NBS placing more emphasis on large- and medium-sized firms
focused on domestic sales, while RatingDog General PMI, compiled
by S&P Global, which came in at 51.2, up from 50.5 in August,
includes a larger share of export-orientated private companies.
"The rebound reflects a seasonal uptick as the summer
disruptions are behind us and the government becomes more
supportive," said Xu Tianchen, senior economist at the Economist
Intelligence Unit, referring to the official PMI's headline
figure.
China's economic momentum is marked by swings, he added: a
strong first quarter from early stimulus, a slower midyear,
followed by a fourth quarter rebound as the government ramps up
support measures to meet growth targets.
UNCERTAINTY OVER U.S. TRADE DEAL
Policymakers rolled out a series of consumer loan subsidies
in mid-August, a decision vindicated by separate factory output
and retail sales data for the month, which saw their weakest
growth in 12 months.
Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People's Bank of China,
said last week a range of monetary policy tools to support the
economy remained available, but refrained from following the
U.S. Federal Reserve with a rate cut, as some economists
speculated the central bank might.
Despite signs the $19 trillion economy is losing momentum,
authorities appear in no hurry to roll out major stimulus
measures, given resilient exports and a stock market rally,
market watchers say.
Adding to signs of a slowdown, the official
non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and construction,
fell to 50.0 from 50.3 in August, according to the National
Bureau of Statistics (NBS), its worst reading since November.
The NBS composite PMI of manufacturing and non-manufacturing
came in at 50.6 in September, compared with 50.5 in August.
The new export orders sub-index contracted for a ninth
straight month, while input prices shrank again after posting
two months of growth, and employment and factory gate prices
remained firmly in the doldrums.
The data point to producers slashing prices to find buyers
overseas, despite the fact that China's exports to regional
rival India hit an all-time high in August, according to customs
data, and shipments to Africa and Southeast Asia are on track
for annual records.
But no other country comes close to the consumption power of
the U.S., where Chinese producers sell more than $400 billion
worth of goods annually, accounting for around 14% of total
exports.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping phoned Trump on September 19 for
the first time in three months, and while the call appeared to
ease tensions, it remains unclear whether it yielded the
expected agreement on popular short-video app TikTok, which
analysts see as key to a broader trade deal.
Disagreements on technical details appeared to be weighing
on negotiations, as Chinese and U.S. trade officials met again
last Thursday to revisit issues discussed in talks before this
month's Madrid summit, where a framework TikTok deal was
reached.