*
China braces for continued superpower rivalry as Trump
claims
victory
*
Foreign ministry says will continue to work with US on
basis of
mutual respect
*
Trump's proposed tariffs could disrupt supply chains and
hurt
Chinese economy
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China likely to expand its influence over the Global South
as
U.S. alliances fray
By Laurie Chen
BEIJING, Nov 6 (Reuters) -
China will work with the U.S. on the basis of mutual
respect, it said on Wednesday as Donald Trump closed in on
victory in the
presidential election
, but strategists said Beijing was bracing for bitter
superpower rivalry over trade, technology and security issues.
"Our policy towards the U.S. is consistent," foreign
ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told a regular press conference
in Beijing, when asked how Trump returning to the Oval Office
would affect U.S.-China relations.
"We will continue to view and handle China-U.S.
relations in accordance with the principles of mutual respect,
peaceful co-existence and win-win cooperation," she added.
Chinese strategists however said they expected more
fiery rhetoric and potentially crippling tariffs from Trump,
although some said his isolationist foreign policy could give
Beijing a vacuum to expand its global influence.
"Beijing anticipated a close race in the U.S. election.
Although Trump's victory is not China's preferred outcome and
raises concerns, it is not entirely unexpected," said Tong Zhao,
senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
"The Chinese leadership will likely strive to maintain
an appearance of a cordial personal relationship with Trump,
while intensifying efforts to project China's power and
strength."
Da Wei, director of the Center for International Security
and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing, said Trump's
victory "may pose a relatively large challenge to Sino-U.S.
relations" based on his campaign policy proposals and actions in
his previous term.
"Due to Trump's high unpredictability, I think it is
difficult for China to say that there is a fully formed plan to
do "x" when Trump comes to power. It also depends on what
policies the Trump administration implements."
TRUMP TARIFF THREAT
Trump has proposed tariffs on Chinese imports in excess of
60% and ending China's most-favoured-nation trading status, and
analysts say the prospect of a trade war has rattled China's
leadership.
China sells goods worth more than $400 billion annually to
the U.S. and hundreds of billions more in components for
products Americans buy from elsewhere.
"Beijing is particularly wary of a potential revival of the
trade war under Trump, especially as China currently faces
significant internal economic challenges," said Zhao.
"China also expects Trump to accelerate the decoupling
of technologies and supply chains, a move that could threaten
China's economic growth and indirectly impact its social and
political stability."
In response, China is likely to intensify its push for
greater technological and economic self-sufficiency, while
feeling more pressure to bolster economic ties with countries
like Russia, he added.
"Going forward, Beijing would likely be drawing up a
list of clear bargains and interest tradeoffs that it could
float with Washington, in hope that it can focus on its much
needed domestic economic concerns whilst Trump's attention is
occupied elsewhere," said Brian Wong, assistant professor at the
University of Hong Kong who studies grand strategy.
GLOBAL POWER VACUUM
China is likely to shore up ties with the Global South,
Europe and Northeast Asian countries in the event of a Trump
win, given his "transactional, isolationist, anti-globalist and
anti-multilateral foreign policy", said Wong.
Chinese President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister
Narendra Modi reached a rare
rapprochement
last month, while Beijing has tentatively
reached out
to the new Japanese administration this autumn following
years of strained relations.
"China expects the second Trump administration to
further disengage from international agreements and commitments,
creating opportunities for China to expand its influence in
emerging power vacuums," Zhao added.
Trump has unnerved democratically governed Taiwan by saying
it should pay Washington for its defence and that it had taken
U.S. semiconductor business.
"The Biden administration applied high-pressure tactics to
China on Taiwan, with U.S. troops stationed in Taiwan and even
giving weapons to Taiwan ... in a huge break with the former
Trump administration's Taiwan policy," said Shen Dingli, an
international relations scholar in Shanghai. Washington last
month approved a US$2 billion arms sale to Taiwan.
"Trump is not too likely to give Taiwan the same support
in future."