financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
China's faltering growth revives cash vouchers talk
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
China's faltering growth revives cash vouchers talk
Aug 18, 2024 4:32 PM

BEIJING (Reuters) -Another round of bad Chinese economic figures is raising pressure on Beijing to loosen the fiscal spigot further and even dole out shopping vouchers to get growth back towards this year's target of roughly 5%.

After a dismal second quarter, the world's second-largest economy lost momentum further in July: new home prices fell at the fastest pace in nine years, industrial output slowed, export and investment growth dipped and unemployment rose.

Other data beat forecasts, but not for positive reasons. Rising inflation was attributed to bad weather rather than stronger domestic demand, a jump in imports reflected frontloaded chip purchases before expected U.S. technology curbs, and a pickup in retail sales was flattered by low comparisons in 2023.

In all, the data paints a worrying picture for policymakers, who look increasingly likely to ramp up stimulus unless they accept slower growth and the prospect of a downward spiral in consumer and business confidence.

"The current economic performance remains behind target, necessitating immediate and significant policy intervention," said Carlos Casanova, Asia senior economist at UBP. This might require the government to widen the budget deficit to 4% of gross domestic product (GDP) from the planned 3%, he said.

One policy adviser, speaking on condition of anonymity, said Beijing may decide in October to bring forward part of next year's bond issuance quota if growth did not show signs of bottoming out in the summer.

"Otherwise, the economy will look ugly, and 5% would be out of the question," the adviser said, without detailing where that stimulus would go.

China made similar moves last October, when it raised the deficit to 3.8% of GDP from 3.0% and separately frontloaded part of the 2024 local government debt quotas to invest in flood-prevention and other infrastructure.

What might change from last year is how the extra money would be spent.

The usual playbook of infrastructure spending is bringing dwindling returns after decades of investment in bridges, roads and rail. Meanwhile, China's preferred driver of growth, advanced manufacturing, is fanning trade tensions and concerns over industrial overcapacity and factory gate deflation.

"The Chinese economy, given its size, cannot run on manufacturing and exports alone," Societe Generale analysts wrote in a note on the latest data.

"To hit the 5% growth target - if that's still the target - policymakers need to step up support for domestic demand."

VOUCHER TALK RESURFACES

As consumers tighten their wallets, Chinese e-commerce giants have had to resort to heavy discounting and promotions to attract shoppers, squeezing margins across the retail sector.

Alibaba Group Holding missed market expectations for revenue on Thursday, as the company's domestic e-commerce sales came under pressure from cautious spending.

A top-level policy meeting in July pledged an incremental tilt towards consumer stimulus, in what analysts saw as an official admission the previous toolkit wasn't working as intended.

An article in state media this week revived an idea implemented in the United States and elsewhere during the pandemic but resisted in Beijing.

China Daily, citing three economists from government-backed think tanks, said the government "should consider additional direct support to consumers worth at least 1 trillion yuan ($139 billion) - either cash or vouchers."

That sum is equivalent to 0.8% of last year's GDP.

Such a step "would necessitate expanding this year's deficit ratio or approving additional special treasury bonds," the article said. Li Daokui, director of Tsinghua University's Academic Center for Chinese Economic Practice and Thinking, was quoted as saying "it was advisable" that the consumption coupons be issued during the week-long National Day break in October.

Most economists are sceptical that Beijing will implement such a move, given past resistance. During the pandemic officials preferred to support businesses and left consumers to fend for themselves.

Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at ANZ, said the impact of such vouchers would be a one-off and that consumption would only pick up sustainably when the crisis-hit property market and stocks start recovering.

He estimated households' property wealth has fallen by 20%-30% from a 600 trillion yuan peak - a drop roughly equivalent to China's annual economic output.

"People will spend during the month they get the vouchers," Xing said. "Only property and stock prices will put consumption in perpetual motion."

(Writing by Marius Zaharia; Editing by Sam Holmes)

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Spirit Airlines reaches tentative cost-saving labor deals amid bankruptcy proceedings
Spirit Airlines reaches tentative cost-saving labor deals amid bankruptcy proceedings
Nov 7, 2025
(Reuters) -Spirit Airlines said on Friday it has reached tentative deals with unions representing its pilots and flight attendants that would involve some contract concessions, as the carrier tries to rein in costs as part of its ongoing Chapter 11 restructuring process. The airline said its senior leadership team has also agreed to take salary reductions at a percentage not...
Consumer Sentiment Tanks To 2022 Lows, But The Richest 3% Are Celebrating
Consumer Sentiment Tanks To 2022 Lows, But The Richest 3% Are Celebrating
Nov 7, 2025
The average American is growing more pessimistic about the economy, as a key sentiment index fell to its lowest level since June 2022, marking one of the bleakest readings since the survey’s inception in 1952. But there's a twist: wealthy Americans are actually feeling better than ever, buoyed by soaring stock markets in another clear sign of a K-shaped economy....
US consumer sentiment near 3-1/2-year low as government shutdown fuels anxiety
US consumer sentiment near 3-1/2-year low as government shutdown fuels anxiety
Nov 7, 2025
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -U.S. consumer sentiment slumped to near a 3-1/2-year low in early November as households across the political spectrum worried about the economic fallout from the longest government shutdown in history, which has caused disruptions ranging from food benefit payments to grounded flights. Still, the University of Michigan's Surveys of Consumers on Friday confirmed what economists describe as a...
Fed's Jefferson urges proceeding 'slowly' with monetary policy
Fed's Jefferson urges proceeding 'slowly' with monetary policy
Nov 7, 2025
Key Insight: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said he supported the 25-basis-point rate cut at the October FOMC meeting to support a labor market showing signs of weakness. With uncertainty over whether official data will be available by December, Jefferson said he is relying on input from business and community stakeholders to gauge the labor outlook.Expert Quote: The current...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved