*
Factory activity contracts for third month, albeit more
slowly
*
New orders, purchase volumes, supplier delivery times pick
up
*
Infrastructure spending boosts non-manufacturing activity
growth
*
More stimulus needed to offset slowing exports
(Recasts, adds analyst comment in paragraphs 4-5, 8, 11, 20-21,
graphic, further details and context throughout)
By Joe Cash
BEIJING, June 30 (Reuters) - China's manufacturing
activity shrank for a third straight month in June, though at a
slower pace, as increases in new orders, purchasing volumes and
supplier delivery times signalled that policy support rolled out
since late last year is taking effect.
But business sentiment remains subdued, Monday's survey
showed, with employment, factory gate prices and new export
orders still languishing, and keeping alive calls for even more
stimulus as authorities deal with U.S. President Donald Trump's
tariff onslaught and chronic weakness in the property sector.
The National Bureau of Statistics purchasing managers' index
(PMI) rose to 49.7 in June from 49.5 in May, matching the median
forecast in a Reuters poll but remaining below the 50-mark that
separates growth from contraction.
"Two months of successive improvement, that's a decent
reading given June was the first full month without Trump's
prohibitive 100%-plus tariffs," said Xu Tianchen, senior
economist at the Economist Intelligence Unit.
"There is still evidence of frontloading in trade, but the
tariffs are lower now and manufacturers are preparing to ship
holiday season goods," he added.
The new export orders sub-index remained in contraction for
a 14th straight month in June, inching up to 47.7 from 47.5 in
May, while employment diverged from other indicators by
deteriorating further. However, new domestic orders rose to 50.2
from 49.8, and purchasing volumes jumped from 47.6 to 50.2 --
offering policymakers some hope that domestic demand may be
starting to recover.
Zichun Huang, China economist at Capital Economics, said the
PMIs suggested the world's second-largest economy had regained
some momentum over the past month, but warned tensions with the
West would continue to squeeze its exports and there were still
signs of deflationary pressures.
The non-manufacturing PMI, which includes services and
construction, grew to 50.5 from 50.3.
Activity in the food and beverages, travel, hospitality and
logistics sectors fell this month, NBS senior statistician Zhao
Qinghe said in a statement. However, this drag was offset by a
pickup in the construction PMI, which rose to a 3-month high of
52.8, Capital Economics' Huang said.
"Fiscal support looks to have continued to support
infrastructure spending," Huang added, but cautioned that "a
fading fiscal tailwind is likely to slow activity in the second
half of the year."
MORE STIMULUS
Uncertainty also lingers among factory owners, as the
business outlook index - which normally moves in line with the
headline PMI - dropped in June and suggested producers were
waiting on a more durable trade deal to a fragile framework
agreed between Beijing and Washington earlier this month.
That puts pressure on policymakers to roll out more support
measures, as the government cannot afford for China's vast
manufacturing sector to stagnate or shrink, if its ambitious
2025 growth target of "around 5%" is to be met.
Profits at China's industrial firms swung sharply back into
decline in May, which officials attributed to weak demand and
falling industrial product prices.
Policymakers are confident they can push ahead with reforms
launched late last year to transition China's economy from a
manufacturing-led model to a consumer-driven one, Premier Li
Qiang told delegates at World Economic Forum and Asian
Infrastructure Investment Bank meetings last week.
Such a shift in the engines of growth, which economists say
is crucial to securing China's future, could be progressed while
maintaining strong growth, Li said.
But economists say the transition could take years, and that
reform typically comes at the cost of a more subdued economy in
the short term.
"Exports are expected to decelerate in the second half of
the year, and domestic deflationary pressures will intensify,"
said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, who expects more
stimulus in coming months.
"Household consumption cannot be a real short-term driver,
but fiscal spending in things like infrastructure can deliver
the kind of growth required to hit this year's target."