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Consumers' Inflation Expectations Edge Higher in November, New York Fed Survey Shows
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Consumers' Inflation Expectations Edge Higher in November, New York Fed Survey Shows
Dec 9, 2024 12:50 PM

03:21 PM EST, 12/09/2024 (MT Newswires) -- US consumers' inflation expectations rose in November, while optimism regarding year-ahead financial situations improved "considerably," the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday.

The median one-, three-, and five-year inflation outlooks increased by 0.1 percentage point each to 3%, 2.6% and 2.9%, respectively, last month. The year-ahead estimates for the cost of medical care and college education rose, while price expectations for gas, food and rent dropped, according to the regional Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations.

Government data are expected to show Wednesday that US consumer inflation rose 0.2% sequentially and 2.7% annually in November, according to a Bloomberg-compiled consensus. In October, the US consumer price index increased 0.2% month on month and 2.6% on an annual basis.

Households' perceptions about their current financial situations were mostly unchanged last month compared with a year ago, though year-ahead expectations improved "considerably," the New York Fed survey showed.

"The share of households expecting a better financial situation in one year from now rose to its highest levels since February 2020, while the share expecting a worse financial situation fell to its lowest level since May 2021," the Fed branch said.

Median home price growth projections were unchanged at 3% last month, according to the survey.

The median expected growth in household income rose by 0.1 percentage point to 3.1%, while spending growth projections dropped by 0.2 percentage point to 4.7%, the lowest level since April 2021, the survey showed.

Median year-ahead earnings growth outlook improved. The mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months rose by 0.5 percentage point to 13.5%, while the odds of leaving one's job voluntarily fell by 0.3 percentage point to 20.2%. The mean perceived probability of finding a new job dropped, according to the survey.

On Friday, official data showed that total nonfarm payrolls in the US climbed by 227,000 last month. The consensus was for a 220,000 increase, according to a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from October's 4.1%.

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