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Consumers' Inflation Expectations Rise in April, NY Fed Survey Shows
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Consumers' Inflation Expectations Rise in April, NY Fed Survey Shows
May 13, 2024 10:58 AM

01:33 PM EDT, 05/13/2024 (MT Newswires) -- US consumers' short- and long-term inflation expectations increased in April, while the home price growth outlook hit the highest level since July 2022, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York said Monday.

Median one-year inflation expectations rose to 3.3% last month from 3% in March amid broad-based gains in commodity price outlooks, according to the regional Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations. The inflation expectations grew to 2.8% from 2.6% at the five-year horizon, but fell to 2.8% from 2.9% at the three-year horizon.

Median home price growth expectations advanced to 3.3% in April after staying steady at 3% for seven straight months, the New York Fed said.

Median expected growth in household income dropped by 0.1 percentage point to 3%, while the household spending growth outlook rose by 0.2 percentage point to 5.2%. Median one-year expected earnings growth dropped by 0.1 percentage point to 2.7%, while the mean perceived probability of finding a new job fell to the lowest reading since April 2021, according to the survey.

Separately, a survey published by the Cleveland Fed showed that inflation expectations among US business leaders rose in the second quarter. Chief executives and other top executives expect inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, to be 3.8% over the next 12 months, up from 3.4% in January, according to the survey.

In a bid to combat inflation, the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee tightened monetary policy by 525 basis points from March 2022 through July 2023. It has kept interest rates unchanged since then, with its latest pause coming earlier this month. There's been "a lack of further progress" in bringing inflation down in recent months, the FOMC said following its latest policy meeting.

Wall Street largely expects the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report Wednesday that the April CPI rose 0.4% sequentially and 3.4% annually, according to a Bloomberg-compiled consensus. Official producer prices data for last month are scheduled to be released Tuesday.

"Should inflation remain at current levels or push slightly higher still, which remains our base case forecast, the Fed will have little if any wiggle room to provide relief, keeping rates at today's relatively elevated level, potentially through the entirety of the current year," Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza and Economist Lauren Henderson said in a Monday note.

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