financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
DoubleLine takes multi-pronged approach to US economy as official jobs data under scrutiny
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
DoubleLine takes multi-pronged approach to US economy as official jobs data under scrutiny
Sep 24, 2025 1:12 PM

NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. bond firm DoubleLine said on Wednesday it is using a variety of official and private data sources to assess the health of the U.S. economy, as it is worried about a decline in the quality of data published by the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics.

In August the Bureau of Labor Statistics published sharp downward revisions to previous jobs data, jolting markets and raising investor worries the Federal Reserve may have been flying blind and would need to catch up with interest rate cuts. President Donald Trump said at the time, without evidence, that numbers contained in the July jobs report were rigged and removed the head of BLS, exacerbating concerns about the integrity of U.S. economic data.

"At DoubleLine, we take a holistic approach to monitoring the health of the economy," Ryan Kimmel, fixed income allocation strategist at DoubleLine, said in a note.

DoubleLine monitors official data, including BLS reports, but complements them with private datasets, corporate earnings calls, and views from in-house experts on corporate debt, consumer lending, and commercial real estate and mortgage lending, said Kimmel.

"Confronted by challenges to the accuracy and reliability of BLS data ... it is more important than ever to possess robust, multifaceted approaches to economic analysis," he said.

The BLS did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Kimmel pointed to a drop in participation rates in the poll of employers that BLS uses to produce its monthly jobs report, from 60% in the 2010s to 40% in recent years.

With responses to employment surveys declining, BLS has relied more on statistical imputation, which uses models to estimate missing data based on historical trends or trends in certain sectors.

"The more data is inferred instead of collected, the risk of mismeasurement grows," said Kimmel.

The Fed cut rates by 25 basis points last week after recent data showed unemployment climbed to 4.3% in August and payrolls grew far less than expected. A steep downward revision to jobs figures for the year through March also recently added weight to the view that the labor market is losing steam, strengthening the case for multiple rate cuts ahead.

"The decline in data quality at the BLS undermines the reliability of economic analysis, putting businesses, policymakers and markets at risk," said Kimmel. "Should this trend continue, it could lead to increased uncertainty and diminished confidence throughout the economy."

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
US workers' share of GDP skids to fresh record low
US workers' share of GDP skids to fresh record low
Aug 6, 2026
Aug 6 (Reuters) - U.S. workers again saw their slice of the U.S. economy slide to a record low in the second quarter amid an ongoing productivity boom that is producing output gains which are outpacing wage growth, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Thursday. The so-called labor share of nominal gross domestic product, which BLS defines as the...
US weekly jobless claims edge up; planned layoffs decline in July
US weekly jobless claims edge up; planned layoffs decline in July
Aug 6, 2026
WASHINGTON, Aug 6 (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing claims for unemployment benefits increased slightly last week, while layoffs dropped to a two-year low in July, consistent with a stable labor market. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 199,000 for the week ended August 1, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled...
US productivity rises faster than expected in second quarter
US productivity rises faster than expected in second quarter
Aug 6, 2026
WASHINGTON, Aug 6 (Reuters) - U.S. worker productivity grew faster than expected in the second quarter and further gains are likely as businesses invest in artificial intelligence, which is expected to keep wage inflation contained. Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 1.4% annualized rate last quarter after advancing at an upwardly revised 0.8% pace in...
US wholesale inventories revised slightly lower in June
US wholesale inventories revised slightly lower in June
Aug 6, 2026
WASHINGTON, Aug 6 (Reuters) - U.S. wholesale inventories rose slightly less than initially thought in June amid a reduction in the stocks of nondurable goods, including petroleum, government data showed on Thursday. Stocks at wholesalers increased 0.2%, revised down from the 0.3% increase estimated last month, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Thursday. Inventories, a key part of gross...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved