The world's population could reach 8.5 billion by 2050 before dropping to 7 billion by 2100, according to a new study. Using a new model to estimate population growth rates, a research team has found that investment in economic development, education and health could help reduce population growth.

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However, one of the recent projections from July 2022 by the United Nations, had suggested the world population could reach 8.5 billion much earlier that is by 2030 itself. The UN projection had also predicted that the world population will peak at around 10.4 billion in the 2080s.

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They had also predicted that India, with 1.4 billion people, will become the most populous country this year.

Poverty alleviation

Researchers from the Earth4All initiative for the Global Challenges Foundation explored two scenarios: one in which the world continues to develop economically as it has in the last 50 years ("Too Little, Too Late") and another in which there is a significant investment in poverty alleviation ("Giant Leap").

In the latter scenario, if countries adopt successful policies for economic development, the researchers estimate that the population could peak at 8.5 billion by around 2040 and decline to around 6 billion people by the end of the century. In that situation, extreme poverty could also end by 2060.

Source: Callegari B., Stoknes P.E., People and Planet: 21st-century sustainable population scenarios and possible living standards within planetary boundaries.

With an "unprecedented" investment in education and health, and equal distribution of resources, extreme poverty could end by 2060, the model predicts.

Furthermore, the researchers argue that population growth is not the prime driver of exceeding planetary boundaries, but rather overconsumption from richer nations and bodies. It is important to note, however, that their report is still a working paper and has not been peer-reviewed.

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A decline in population could be beneficial, as larger populations consume more non-renewable resources and cause more pollution. There is potential for the entire population to achieve living conditions beyond the UN's minimum level, they argue.

The carrying capacity of the Earth suggests that it is possible for everyone to escape extreme poverty and have access to food, shelter, energy and other resources, but only with an equal distribution of resources.

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(Edited by : C H Unnikrishnan)

First Published:Mar 28, 2023 12:30 PM IST