Each year, the Department of Economic Affairs of the Ministry of Finance presents the economic survey in the Parliament, one day before the Union budget presentation.
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The survey, prepared by Chief Economic Advisor Krishnamurthy Subramanian, was tabled by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Wednesday.
Here are the key highlights:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is seen at 7 percent in the financial year 2020.
Higher FY20 growth predicted on stable macroeconomic condition.
Investment rate seems to have bottomed out. It is expected to pick up in 2019-20 on the back of credit growth and improved demand.
The general fiscal deficit is seen at 5.8 percent in FY19 as compared to 6.4 percent in FY18.
Green shoots in investment activity seem to be taking hold.
The investment rate is seen higher in FY20 on higher credit growth.
Growth in the January-March quarter slowed down partly due to
poll-related uncertainty.
The government requested not to compromise on fiscal gap aim to fund new schemes.
Sustaining 8 percent growth is necessary to become a $5 trillion economy by FY25.
Goods and Services Tax (GST) buoyancy in FY20 will be key to improved fiscal situation.
The survey cites several fiscal challenges in FY20. Slow growth, GST and farm schemes to remain major obstacles.
Revenue mop-up may be hit if growth slows in FY20, the survey warns.
Expects government policies to further lift restrictions on foreign portfolio investment (FPI) inflows.
Liquidity has remained systematically tight since September 2018, impacting yields.
Lower global growth and increased uncertainty over trade tension may hit exports.
Growth in service exports and imports in the US dollar declined to 5.5 percent and 6.7 percent respectively in FY'18 from 18.8 percent and 22.6 percent in FY'19.
Job creation can be fostered by boosting investment, adding that the aggressive export strategy must be part of an investment-driven model.
Savings have to increase more than investments to allow for the accumulation of precautionary savings.
Virtuous cycle of savings, investment, exports and growth with investment are needed as the central driver.
First Published:Jul 4, 2019 12:02 PM IST