financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Economic worries back on Wall Street's radar after jobs data
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Economic worries back on Wall Street's radar after jobs data
Sep 6, 2024 2:27 PM

NEW YORK (Reuters) -Uncertainty over the U.S. economy's health is rippling through markets, adding fuel to an already-volatile period that has investors grappling with a shift in Federal Reserve policy, a tight U.S. election and worries over stretched valuations.

U.S. stocks tumbled on Friday after closely watched jobs data showed labor market momentum slowing more than expected, suggesting a narrower path for the U.S. to achieve a soft landing, in which the Fed is able to cool inflation without badly damaging economic growth.

The Fed is expected to cut interest rates at its Sept. 17-18 meeting, but the data revived fears that months of elevated borrowing costs have already started to pressure the economy. That is a potentially unwelcome development for investors, after prospects for rate cuts against a background of resilient growth helped drive the S&P 500 to record highs this year.

"The data shows that we remain on the soft-landing path, but clearly there's more downside risks to which the markets are going to be sensitive," said Angelo Kourkafas, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones. "The expectation for elevated volatility is a realistic one."

Evidence of ebbing risk appetite showed up across markets. The S&P 500 dropped 1.7% on Friday and has lost nearly 4.3% in the past week, its worst weekly decline since March 2023. Nvidia ( NVDA ), the poster child of this year's artificial intelligence excitement, was down over 4% and stood near its lowest level in about a month, falling along with other high-flying technology names.

Meanwhile, the Cboe Market Volatility index, also called Wall Street's "fear gauge," hit its highest level in nearly a month on Friday.

"There's concern that the Fed is not going to be reacting quick enough or more forcefully enough to help prevent something more sinister," said Keith Lerner, co-chief investment officer, Truist Advisory Services.

Several factors threaten to compound the market's uncertainty. Futures bets on Friday showed investors pricing in a nearly 70% chance of a 25 basis point reduction by the Fed, and 30% chance of a 50 bp cut. For many, however, the issue remains far from settled.

"Markets have had to grapple with - just as the Fed is doing - whether the August payroll data reflects a labor market normalizing towards pre-COVID levels or whether it's indicative of an economy losing dangerous momentum," Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, said in written commentary.

Others took a dimmer view. Citi analysts said the report warranted a 50 basis point cut later this month.

"The takeaway from the range of labor market data is clear - the job market is cooling in a classic pattern that precedes recession," analysts at Citi wrote.

Inflation data next week could shed further light on the strength of the economy and help solidify bets on how much the Fed might cut rates.

Valuation concerns are also reemerging. The S&P 500, which is up over 13% this year, is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of nearly 21 times expected forward 12-month earnings estimates as of Thursday, well above its historical average of 15.7, according to LSEG Datastream.

Despite a recent swoon, the S&P 500 technology sector - by far the biggest group in the index - is trading at over 28 times expected earnings, compared to its long-term average of 21.2.

"We've come a long way in a relatively short period of time and I think you're starting to see some businesses do the math on AI and ask whether it's really worth the cost, which will weigh on the big tech stocks," said Mark Travis, a portfolio manager at Intrepid Capital Management.

Investors are also closely watching a tight U.S. presidential election which is starting to head into the home stretch. The race between Democrat Kamala Harris and Republican Donald Trump could draw more investor focus on Tuesday, when the two candidates debate for the first time ahead of the Nov. 5 vote.

So far, the market gyrations have bolstered September's reputation as a tough time for investors. The S&P 500 has fallen an average of nearly 0.8% in September since 1945, making it the worst month for stocks, CFRA data showed. The index is already down 4% since the month began.

"Investors are saying let's hope we can have a soft landing," said Burns McKinney, senior portfolio manager at NFJ Investment Group. "It still feels like it's fairly likely, but with each weaker jobs number it's becoming less and less the base case."

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
From leadership to regulation on illegal fishing: All that India managed to win at the WTO
From leadership to regulation on illegal fishing: All that India managed to win at the WTO
Jun 17, 2022
Union Minister Piyush Goyal said this will be the first Ministerial Conference when India set the agenda. After the WTO meet, he said solutions were discussed and consensus was achieved on several issues including fisheries, food security and COVID-19 preparedness.
Expect India-EU FTA to be completed by 2024, says Danish envoy
Expect India-EU FTA to be completed by 2024, says Danish envoy
Jul 1, 2022
The first round of talks for a free trade agreement (FTA) between India and the European Union (EU) has concluded. This is the second attempt by both sides to seal a free trade deal. Negotiations had first started in 2007 and had continued till 2013 after which there was no action for 8 years.
WTO Ministerial meet in Geneva extended by a day
WTO Ministerial meet in Geneva extended by a day
Jun 15, 2022
WTO's Ministerial meet in Geneva has extended negotiations by another day to reach a consensus on key global trade issues. Many WTO members have objected to India’s stance on food and fishing issues. But the Indian contingent stands firm on its demand to ensure food security and putting an end to fishing subsidies.
From Bill Gates to Elon Musk, these famous people have hinted at an 'impending' recession in the US
From Bill Gates to Elon Musk, these famous people have hinted at an 'impending' recession in the US
Jun 20, 2022
The US Federal Reserve recently set markets scrambling as it hiked its key policy rates by 75 basis points. These hikes come as the Joe Biden administration and the Federal Reserve are making a host of policy decisions to tackle a 40-year record high inflation. While these decisions may well control the red-hot rates, many predict that the pendulum would swing too far in the other direction and result in a recession in the US economy. A recent survey of economists, fund managers and investment strategists by CNBC saw 57 percent of the respondents stating that they expected the US to bear a period of recession as a result of the Fed’s rate hikes. August 2023 is the average month when the respondents expect the recession to arrive and over half believe that it would be a moderate recession. Here are some of the biggest names who see the US heading for a recession in the coming months-
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved