(Reuters) -JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has maintained a cautious stance on the U.S. economy for several quarters now and said on Tuesday accurate forecasts are a challenge because key shifts are apparent only in hindsight.

While the longtime CEO expressed optimism about the health of the consumer, he reiterated concerns about tariffs and trade uncertainty, worsening geopolitical conditions, high fiscal deficits and elevated asset prices.

The bank remains measured when making projections, Dimon said, citing past crises that caught many off guard.

"Our forecasting of the future is very complex. You probably heard me say that sometimes it's a complete waste of time. Most people cannot really pick inflection points," he said.

Earlier in the year, Dimon had cautioned about the risk of recession, the possibility of credit spreads widening and inflation rising.

His comments reflect a broader challenge facing policymakers and markets. While precise economic projections are often challenging because of backward-looking data that is frequently revised, unpredictable factors can throw even seasoned observers off course.

A December study by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis examined the Blue Chip Survey of Professional Forecasters, an average of projections from about 50 economists, from 1993 to 2024, and found that actual GDP growth came within the forecast range just 44% of the time.

Here is a timeline of Dimon's public comments on the U.S. economy over the past few quarters:

Date Comments

April 2024 The U.S. economic boom is "unbelievable", Dimon

said at an event. "Even if we go into

recession, the consumer's still in good shape."

July 2024 "While market valuations and credit spreads

seem to reflect a rather benign economic

outlook, we continue to be vigilant about

potential tail risks," he said, citing

geopolitical risks, large fiscal deficits and

other factors.

October 2024 "While inflation is slowing and the U.S.

economy remains resilient, several critical

issues remain, including large fiscal deficits,

infrastructure needs, restructuring of trade

and remilitarization of the world," Dimon said.

January 2025 "Businesses are more optimistic about the

economy, and they are encouraged by

expectations for a more pro-growth agenda and

improved collaboration between government and

business," he said, while repeating his

warnings about government spending and

geopolitical risks. "Inflation may persist for

some time."

April 2025 "We are likely to see inflationary outcomes ...

Whether or not the menu of tariffs causes a

recession remains in question, but it will slow

down growth," Dimon wrote in his annual letter

to shareholders.

April 2025 He reiterated his warning of economic

turbulence, noting that while tax reform and

deregulation could offer a boost, tariffs,

trade tensions and persistent inflation may

pose significant headwinds. He also highlighted

that the bank's economists estimate a 50%

chance of a U.S. recession this year.

July 2025 Dimon said the financial market was

underestimating the possibility of U.S.

interest rates climbing higher, a prospect he

described as a "cause for concern". The

administration's tariffs, migration policies

and budget deficit could lead to price

pressures, he said.

July 2025 "The U.S. economy remained resilient in the

quarter. The finalization of tax reform and

potential deregulation are positive for the

economic outlook, however, significant risks

persist," Dimon said.

Source: Reuters stories, earnings statements

(Reporting by Niket Nishant in Bengaluru; editing by Megan Davies and Devika Syamnath)