(Reuters) -U.S. retailers are bracing for a subdued holiday shopping season this year as the economic fallout from President Donald Trump's erratic trade policies leaves shoppers more cautious about buying extravagant gifts.

The holiday selling season spans over three months from November to the end of January, including key shopping days such as Thanksgiving, Black Friday, Cyber Monday and Christmas, which account for a chunk of retailers' annual sales.

In recent weeks, several companies, including Deckers Outdoor, Elf Beauty, Tapestry, Under Armour and Canada Goose signaled soft demand during the holidays.

Here are some prominent holiday shopping forecasts and surveys:

SOURCE KEY FORECASTS NUMBERS

PwC PricewaterhouseCoop American shoppers

ers projected the are expected to

steepest spend about $1,552

year-over-year drop per person on

in U.S. holiday average, down 5.3%

spending since the from last year.

pandemic, primarily

fueled by Gen Z

shoppers pulling

back amid economic

uncertainty.

Deloitte U.S. holiday sales Retail sales during

are expected to the November

grow at their 2025-January 2026

slowest pace since period are expected

the pandemic. to rise between

A survey conducted 2.9% and 3.4%,

by Deloitte showed compared with a

the least 4.2% increase last

optimistic outlook year, marking the

on economic slowest growth

sentiment since the since the 2018-2019

firm started season.

tracking it in E-commerce sales

1997.  are projected to

The survey also increase between 7%

said consumers and 9% during the

expect to reduce season,

their spending on compared with last

both retail goods year's 8% growth.

and experiences, In-store sales are

with nearly all projected to rise

generations and between 2% and

income groups 2.2%, compared to a

planning to pull 3.4% growth in

back on spending 2024.

this season, except Consumers are

for Gen X shoppers. expected to spend

an average of

$1,595, down 10%

from last year,

according to a

survey of 4,270

consumers conducted

online byan

independent

research company

and fielded between

August 27 and

September 5.

77% of surveyed

consumers expect

higher prices on

holiday items, and

57% expect the

economy to weaken

in 2026, with 56%

of respondents

being concerned

about a potential

recession in the

next six months.

Salesforce The software Online spending is

company projects a expected to rise

slower growth in 2.1% to $288

online spending billion, lower than

between November 1 a 4% increase in

and December 31. the same period

last year. 

Mastercard The Mastercard Retail sales are

Economics Institute expected to rise

expects U.S. 3.6% between

holiday sales November 1 and

growth to moderate December 24 this

this year. Still, year, compared to a

it will be driven 4.1% growth in the

by promotions, as same period last

consumers seek the year.

best value for Online sales are

their money amid expected to jump

broader 7.9% this holiday

macroeconomic season, compared to

uncertainty. an 8.6% rise last

year.

In-store sales are

projected to grow

2.3%. It rose 2.8%

in the 2024 holiday

season.

Adobe Analytics U.S. holiday online U.S. online sales

sales to grow at a to rise 5.3% to

slower pace this $253.4 billion

year, Adobe between November 1

Analytics projects, and December 31,

as macroeconomic compared with an

uncertainty 8.7% rise last

continues to year.

pressure consumer Cyber Monday sales

spending. are expected to

rise 6.3% to $14.2

billion.

Consumer spending

between October 7

and October 8 is

expected to be $9

billion, a 6.2%

increase compared

with last year, as

the data firm

expects shoppers to

kick off some of

their early holiday

purchases during

Amazon's October

Big Deal Days.

EY-Parthenon Ernst & Young's U.S. holiday retail

consulting firm sales in the

forecasts a modest November-December

rise in holiday 2025 shopping

sales this year, season are expected

driven mainly by to rise 2.5%,

higher prices due compared with a

to inflation. While 4.2% increase last

higher-income year, EY-Parthenon

households are forecast shows.

largely unaffected The sales growth at

by price increases, 2.5% is expected to

spending from be the slowest

middle-and since 2018, when it

lower-income grew 2.4%.

consumers is While total sales

expected to be are expected to

constrained due to cross $1 trillion,

slower income gains are likely to

growth and rising be driven by higher

credit dependency, prices, compared

the firm says. with last year,

when volume growth

made up about 85%

of sales growth.

National Retail NRF forecasts Spending is set to

Federation (NRF) holiday sales above rise in a range of

$1 trillion for the 3.7% to 4.2% to

first time, but between $1.01

sees slower growth trillion and $1.02

than last year. trillion.

It had risen by

4.3% to $976.1

billion in November

and December last

year.