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Fed Governors Call For Caution on Rate Cuts
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Fed Governors Call For Caution on Rate Cuts
Nov 20, 2024 7:23 PM

03:40 PM EST, 11/20/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Federal Reserve officials should take a cautious approach to interest rate cuts amid a potentially bumpy disinflationary trajectory, governors Lisa Cook and Michelle Bowman separately said Wednesday.

Earlier this month, the central bank's Federal Open Market Committee reduced its benchmark lending rate by 25 basis points, following a 50-basis-point cut in September.

"Although most price indicators suggest that progress is ongoing, I anticipate bumps along the road," Cook said Wednesday in remarks prepared for a speech at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville.

Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, continues to be "somewhat elevated," Cook said, citing pressures stemming from housing services.

Headline and core inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index, are seen easing to 2.2% in 2025 and to lower levels after that, she said. "My view is that housing services inflation will come down gradually over the next two years as the earlier slowing of growth in new tenant rent feeds through into the overall rate."

The labor market in the US is no longer a source of inflationary pressures, Cook said. "I still see the direction of the appropriate policy rate path to be downward, but the magnitude and timing of rate cuts will depend on incoming data."

Separately, Bowman said the FOMC should proceed cautiously amid uncertainty around available data and risks to achieving price stability. Core inflation remains high while progress on lowering overall prices "seems to have stalled in recent months," she said.

"My estimate of the neutral policy rate is much higher than it was before the pandemic, and therefore we may be closer to a neutral policy stance than we currently think," Bowman said in remarks prepared for a speech in West Palm Beach, Florida. "I would prefer to proceed cautiously in bringing the policy rate down to better assess how far we are from the end point, while recognizing that we have not yet achieved our inflation goal and closely watching the evolution of the labor market."

Both Cook and Bowman said that the US economy remains strong and that monetary policy is not on "a preset course."

Last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the economy is "not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry" to ease policy. Markets are currently pricing in a 52% probability that the FOMC will reduce interest rates by 25 basis points next month, according to the CME FedWatch tool. The remaining odds are for rates to remain unchanged at 4.50% to 4.75%.

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