The Federal Reserve is widely expected to maintain its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range at next week’s policy meeting, as policymakers weigh recent soft inflation data against ongoing uncertainty from President Donald Trump‘s trade policies and demands for aggressive rate cuts.

What Happened: The Federal Reserve will likely keep rates unchanged at its June 17-18 meeting despite recent inflation readings showing consumer and producer prices both increased less than expected in May, reported Reuters. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has indicated the central bank will maintain a “wait-and-see” approach amid unresolved trade and budget issues that could impact both inflation and economic growth.

Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY-Parthenon, said, “Recent Fed commentary has reinforced a wait-and-see approach, with officials signaling little urgency to adjust policy amid increased uncertainty around the economic outlook.”

Trump has demanded the central bank immediately cut its benchmark overnight interest rate by a full percentage point, calling Fed Chair Powell “one numbskull” for maintaining current policy. At a White House meeting last month, Powell told the president he would not allow politics to influence monetary policy decisions.

The Fed’s policy rate has remained in the current range since December, when officials expected to begin a steady series of rate reductions. However, Trump’s trade policies raised risks of higher inflation and slower growth, complicating the central bank’s dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment.

See Also: Trump Issues Stark Warning To Iran To ‘Make A Deal’ After Israel’s Strikes On Nuclear Sites: ‘Just Do It Before It’s Too Late’

Why It Matters: Market participants currently price in expectations for possible rate cuts this year, with recent data showing year-over-year inflation measured by the Fed’s preferred Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index running close to the 2% target over the past three months. The unemployment rate has held steady at 4.2% for three consecutive months.

President Trump on Thursday escalated his criticism of Powell, blaming the Federal Reserve chief’s rate stance for higher U.S. debt costs. “We can’t get this guy to do it," he said. "And the fake news is saying, ‘Oh if you fired him it would be so bad.' I don’t know why it would be so bad, but I’m not going to fire him.”

The Supreme Court recently upheld the Federal Reserve’s independence from presidential interference, describing it as a “uniquely structured, quasi-private entity” that cannot be dismissed without cause. This legal protection shields Powell, whose term ends in May 2026, from Trump’s repeated threats of removal for not cutting rates aggressively enough.

Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari warned that tariff negotiations “may take months or years” to conclude, with potential for “tit-for-tat tariff increases” from trading partners. Goldman Sachs analysts lowered recession odds to around 30% but maintained expectations that higher inflation numbers over the summer could sideline rate cuts until December.

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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.