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Fed Officials Appear Divided Over 2025 Policy Path, June Meeting Minutes Show
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Fed Officials Appear Divided Over 2025 Policy Path, June Meeting Minutes Show
Jul 9, 2025 12:58 PM

03:41 PM EDT, 07/09/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Federal Reserve officials last month offered mixed views on the monetary policy path ahead, with opinions ranging from "some reduction" in interest rates this year to no cuts at all, minutes from the central bank's June 17-18 meeting showed Wednesday.

At the meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee decided to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged at 4.25% to 4.50% for a fourth straight time, while sticking to its federal funds rate outlook for 2025 amid higher inflation expectations.

"Most participants assessed that some reduction in the target range for the federal funds rate this year would likely be appropriate" amid expectations that price pressures from tariffs may be temporary or modest, the meeting minutes showed Wednesday. This group of policymakers also indicated that economic activity and labor market conditions could weaken.

However, some participants supported not cutting rates this year, citing, among other factors, recent inflation readings that exceeded the committee's 2% goal.

A couple of policymakers indicated willingness to considering a rate cut as soon as at their July meeting if economic data evolve as expected, according to the document.

Last month, Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said she would support lowering interest rates as soon as July, provided that inflationary pressures remain "contained." Separately, Fed Governor Christopher Waller reportedly said the FOMC may be in a position to ease monetary policy as early as this month.

US President Donald Trump has repeatedly called on the Fed to cut interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently said that Trump's tariff rollout has prompted the central bank to hold steady on rates rather than cut.

Trump has sent letters to at least seven more trading partners, including the Philippines and Sri Lanka, outlining new tariff rates, CNBC reported Wednesday. Earlier in the week, Trump sent letters to 14 nations, including Japan and South Africa, informing them of their new reciprocal tariff rates that are scheduled to come into effect on Aug. 1.

The US and China late in June confirmed details of a trade framework that would allow exports of rare earths and ease technology curbs.

"Many participants noted that the eventual effect of tariffs on inflation could be more limited if trade deals are reached soon, if firms are able to quickly adjust their supply chains, or if firms can use other margins of adjustment to reduce their exposure to the effects of tariffs," the meeting minutes showed Wednesday.

Markets widely expect the FOMC to again hold interest rates steady later this month, while the odds of a 25-basis-point cut in September were at 68%, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

"Participants noted that the committee might face difficult tradeoffs if elevated inflation proved to be more persistent while the outlook for employment weakened," according to the latest meeting minutes. "Participants agreed that although uncertainty about inflation and the economic outlook had decreased, it remained appropriate to take a careful approach in adjusting monetary policy."

The June meeting minutes highlighted the FOMC's wait-and-watch strategy amid "the ever-shifting trade landscape," BMO Capital Markets said in a report published Wednesday. The firm still expects the first rate cut of 2025 in September, according to the report.

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