(Reuters) -Federal Reserve policymakers wary of cutting interest rates in the face of President Donald Trump's aggressive tariffs will likely stick to their wait-and-see stance amid fresh data Friday showing muted inflation last month and evidence of increased consumer caution. 

April's 2.1% year-over year increase in the Personal Consumption Expenditure price index, down from 2.3% in March, puts inflation within a stone's throw of the Fed's 2% target.

But analysts don't see that trend continuing, with businesses expected to pass on to consumers at least some of their rising costs from higher import levies. Already goods prices are firming, the report showed.

"The Fed will welcome the favorable inflation reading in this report, but they are likely to interpret it as the calm before the storm," said Olu Sonola, who heads U.S. economic research at Fitch Ratings. The central bank will continue to wait for the storm, unless consumer spending buckles and the unemployment rate rises rapidly, Sonula added.

Consumer spending growth slowed to 0.2% last month, the Commerce Department also said on Friday, and the personal saving rate jumped to 4.9% from 4.3%. Analysts saw both as signs of renewed consumer caution amid uncertainty over tariff policy that continues to change on a near-daily basis. 

For the Fed, wrote III Capital Management's Karim Basta, there's "nothing to do but wait." 

SEPTEMBER RATE CUT?

The Fed has kept short-term borrowing costs in the 4.25%-4.50% range since last December. Since their last meeting, in May, policymakers have repeatedly voiced concerns that tariffs could reverse progress on inflation.

"As long as inflation is printing above target and there's some uncertainty about how quickly it can come back down to 2%, well, then inflation is going to be my focus because the labor market's in solid shape," San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly told Reuters late Thursday, adding that rates need to stay moderately restrictive to keep that pressure on prices. 

Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan late Thursday similarly said it could be "quite some time" before it's clear if Trump's policies pose bigger risks to employment or to inflation; for now, she said, the risks are in rough balance, leaving the Fed on hold.

Traders after the data continued to bet that by September the Fed will begin cutting rates gradually, bringing the policy rate down to 3.75%-4.0% by year's end.