02:57 PM EDT, 04/10/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee's March 19-20 meeting foreshadowed the strong data and hawkish comments from Fed officials over the last three weeks, with participants agreeing that a rate cut is likely this year but with heightened concerns that the economic data released to that point will demand more evidence of an inflation slowdown.

The FOMC did discuss slowing the pace of reduction in the Fed's holdings of security on the balance sheet, making no decisions, but agreeing that the slowing should begin "fairly soon."

Recent comments of note:

(April 5) Fed Governor Michelle Bowman (voter) said that it may be appropriate to cut rates at some point, but it is not that time yet due to the risks of inflation reemerging because of geopolitical issues, a boost in fiscal stimulus or continued housing inflation. Bowman also said it is possible that the federal funds rate will need to be higher than it was before the pandemic, so the FOMC may not need to cut rates as much as expected and did not rule out that rates may need to be adjusted higher if the progress on inflation is reversed.

(April 5) Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan (nonvoter) added to recent comments from officials that it is "much too soon" for the FOMC to consider rate reductions due to uncertainty in the economic path and said that the FOMC should be ready to act if inflation does not continue to slow.

(April 4) Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin (voter) said that the FOMC can be patient when considering rate cuts as recent data that have indicated an economic slowdown could be just a momentary lapse. Barkin repeated recent comments from Fed officials that the FOMC is prepared to deal with an economy that is overheating or, alternatively, one that slows.

(April 4) Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester (voter) said that it is not yet time for the FOMC to lower interest rates, but it could be appropriate "later this year" if the economy evolves as expected.

(April 4) Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (nonvoter) said recent higher-than-expected inflation data may not be the start of a trend, but he will be watching the incoming information, especially housing inflation. Goolsbee said that a few months of elevated inflation data does not mean progress toward price stability has been derailed.

(April 4) Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (nonvoter) said that he has penciled in two rate cuts for this year, but cautioned that if inflation continues to move sidewise, it is possible that the FOMC may not be able to lower rates at all, Bloomberg reported.