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Federal Reserve Watch for Aug. 7: Bostic Still Sees One Rate Cut This Year, Though Greater Risk to Employment Mandate
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Federal Reserve Watch for Aug. 7: Bostic Still Sees One Rate Cut This Year, Though Greater Risk to Employment Mandate
Aug 7, 2025 12:10 PM

02:52 PM EDT, 08/07/2025 (MT Newswires) -- Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic (nonvoter) said that he still sees one rate cut as appropriate for this year, even as the July employment data, particularly the large revisions to previous months, suggest a greater risk to that side of the Fed's mandate.

Bostic added that the uncertainty in the current environment makes it harder to predict the appropriate policy path going forward, with the key question being whether the inflation impact from the tariffs turns out to be a one-time event or more persistent.

Recent comments of note:

(Aug. 6) San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (nonvoter) said that the Federal Open Market Committee will probably need to reduce its target rate for the federal funds rate in the near term due to a slowing labor market, even if tariffs lift inflation temporarily over the next few months.

(Aug. 6) Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari (nonvoter) said in an interview on CNBC that it is time to begin lowering federal funds rate, adding that he sees two rate cuts as appropriate this year, with possibly more or less stimulus needed depending on conditions and the impact of tariffs.

(Aug. 4) Daly said that the timing of the next rate cut is getting closer, neither promising nor ruling out a reduction at the next FOMC meeting in September. Daly said that two rate cuts this year still appear to be appropriate with the possibility of less or more depending on conditions.

(Aug. 1) Fed Governor Adriana Kugler (voter) announced that she will be leaving her position on Aug. 8, providing a vacancy on the board that can be filled by President Donald Trump, possibly with his pick to eventually replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell when his term ends.

(Aug. 1) Bostic said after the weaker-than-expected July employment data that the report is one factor he will consider going forward, particularly if it deteriorates further, but added that there is still strength in the labor market.

(July 30) Powell (voter) said the current level of policy restrictiveness is appropriate to protect against the risk that tariff impacts could be larger or more long-term than some expect. He said that he sees the current level of the federal funds rate as "modestly restrictive" and said that there are no signs that the economy is being held back by the level of policy. Instead, the policy level is "well positioned" to see how conditions evolve given that the effects of tariffs could be "short-lived" or more persistent.

(July 30) The FOMC left the target rate for the federal funds at 4.25% to 4.50% at its meeting and made no significant changes to its statement other than to acknowledge the slowing of economic growth in the first half of the year. However, two Fed governors, Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman and Governor Christopher Waller, dissented from the decision in favor of a 25-basis point rate reduction. This was the first time two governors had dissented at the same meeting since 1993 and aligns with their recent comments.

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