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Federal Reserve Watch for May 6: Richmond Fed's Barkin 'Optimistic' Rate Restrictive Enough to Slow Demand, Inflation
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Federal Reserve Watch for May 6: Richmond Fed's Barkin 'Optimistic' Rate Restrictive Enough to Slow Demand, Inflation
May 6, 2024 11:45 AM

02:23 PM EDT, 05/06/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin (voter) said that he is "optimistic" that the current level of the federal funds rate is restrictive enough to slow demand and bring down inflation but said that the FOMC will be able to act if the economy overheats or, conversely, if the economy slows more than expected.

New York Fed President John Williams (voter) said that monetary policy decisions will be based on the incoming data and that rate cuts are likely as economic growth slows this year.

Recent comments of note:

(May 3) New York Fed President John Williams (voter) said that the Fed is committed to returning inflation to its 2% goal, setting the stage for "sustained economic prosperity." At the same conference, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (nonvoter) said that the Fed's quarterly dot plot forecasts should do a better job of pairing economic forecasts with the outlook for rate movements.

(May 3) Fed Governor Michelle Bowman (voter) said that while it appears that policy is restrictive enough to bring down inflation, she will continue to monitor incoming data and make decisions meeting-by-meeting. Bowman said that upside risks to inflation remain, and she did not rule out raising the federal funds rate further if that is what is needed to restore price stability, noting that policy is not on a preset course.

(May 1) The Federal Open Market Committee maintained its target range for the federal funds rate at 5.25% to 5.50% but noted a lack of progress on the slowdown in inflation. The FOMC did slow the pace of runoff of its securities purchases beginning in June, lowering the cap on redemptions of Treasury securities to $25 billion from $60 billion previously and leaving the cap on agency mortgage-backed securities redemptions at $35 billion. The slowdown was smaller than many expected and would be seen as dovish.

(May 1) Fed Chairman Jerome Powell (voter) said that is "unlikely" that the next move by the FOMC would be a hike, saying that the current level of policy restriction should be effective to bring down inflation. However, it is likely to take longer for the FOMC to gain enough confidence that inflation is moving effectively toward the 2% goal to consider rate decreases.

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