financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Fed's Barkin says rates were 'out of sync' before September cut, inflation fight not done
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Fed's Barkin says rates were 'out of sync' before September cut, inflation fight not done
Oct 2, 2024 11:11 PM

WILMINGTON, North Carolina (Reuters) - The U.S. central bank's half-percentage-point interest rate cut last month was an acknowledgement that its policy rate was "out of sync" with where the economy stands, but shouldn't be taken as a sign that the battle with inflation is finished, Richmond Federal Reserve President Thomas Barkin said on Wednesday.

With inflation falling and unemployment around what is considered its long-term sustainable rate, "the number that now seemed out of sync was the fed funds rate, which no longer needed to be as restrictive given the progress that's been made," Barkin said in remarks prepared for delivery to a University of North Carolina Wilmington economic conference.

Projections of a further half percentage point of Fed cuts over the rest of the year further "takes a little bit of the edge off," he said.

Barkin, a voter on the Fed's interest rate policy this year, supported the half-percentage-point cut delivered by the U.S. central bank on Sept. 18.

The Fed is expected to cut rates by a quarter of a percentage point at its Nov. 6-7 meeting, a move that would lower the benchmark rate to the 4.50%-4.75% range. Before that meeting, the U.S. government will have released the employment reports for September and October and inflation data for September. Fed policymakers also will have to assess any fallout from a strike this week that closed ports on the U.S. East Coast and Gulf Coast, and also what risks may be posed by the intensification of conflict in the Middle East.

'LEARN AS WE GO'

Barkin said he remains cautious about inflation amid continued strong economic growth, and said he felt there were conditions in which the job market could grow tighter rather than weaker in the months ahead.

"There is still work to do on inflation," Barkin said, noting that the personal consumption expenditures price index stripped of volatile food and energy items, or core PCE, is still at 2.7%. He said he does not expect it to decline much more until next year.

The Fed targets an annual headline inflation rate of 2%. The core PCE figure is considered a guide to how the headline rate will behave in the future.

Barkin said that while some aspects of the economy make it seem that "disinflation" will continue, "it remains difficult to say that the inflation battle has yet been won."

Recent rate cuts could stoke demand for big-ticket purchases like homes and cars, he said, and "there is a risk that demand is stimulated in excess of supply."

U.S. labor unrest and geopolitical conflicts could also push up prices.

Additionally, the job market may move in unexpected ways, Barkin said. While much of the Fed's discussion has been about preventing the current 4.2% unemployment rate from rising further, Barkin argued that if the economy continues to grow and demand increases, "employers running lean could well find themselves short" of workers and need to hire.

"As we decide how fast to move and how far to go during this rate-reduction cycle, we are just going to need to be attentive and learn as we go," he said.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
US weekly jobless claims fall, but labor market softening
US weekly jobless claims fall, but labor market softening
Sep 25, 2025
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, but the labor market has lost its luster amid an anemic pace of hiring. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 14,000 to a seasonally adjusted 218,000 for the week ended September 20, the Labor Department said on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast...
US core capital goods orders unexpectedly rise in August
US core capital goods orders unexpectedly rise in August
Sep 25, 2025
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -New orders for key U.S.-manufactured capital goods unexpectedly increased in August, but a decline in shipments of these goods suggested a moderate pace of growth in business spending on equipment this quarter. Non-defense capital goods orders excluding aircraft, a closely watched proxy for business spending, rose 0.6% last month after a downwardly revised 0.8% jump in July, the...
Fed's Schmid says rate cut was right move to offset job market risks
Fed's Schmid says rate cut was right move to offset job market risks
Sep 25, 2025
(Reuters) -Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeffrey Schmid said on Thursday that last week's central bank interest-rate cut was needed to help ensure that the job market remains in a good place. While the economy is currently in a pretty good spot relative to the Fed's inflation and job goals, some recent data suggests a growing risk that...
US second-quarter GDP growth revised sharply higher
US second-quarter GDP growth revised sharply higher
Sep 25, 2025
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The U.S. economy grew faster than previously thought in the second quarter, pumped up by an ebb in imports and a pickup in consumer spending, but momentum appears to have since slowed.  Gross domestic product increased at an upwardly revised 3.8% annualized rate last quarter, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) said in its third GDP...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved