financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Fed's 'confidence' in disinflation not helped by recent data, minutes show
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Fed's 'confidence' in disinflation not helped by recent data, minutes show
Apr 10, 2024 11:25 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve officials worried last month that progress on inflation might have stalled and a longer period of tight monetary policy be needed to tame the pace of price increases, according to the minutes of the U.S. central bank's March 19-20 meeting at which policymakers kept a baseline view for three interest rate cuts in 2024.

"Participants generally noted their uncertainty about the persistence of high inflation and expressed the view that recent data had not increased their confidence that inflation was moving sustainably down to 2%," the minutes from the meeting said, a sentiment that may have been bolstered by data released on Wednesday that showed another surprise jump in inflation.

Fed officials are debating whether the greater risk is for monetary policy to remain too tight for too long, or for the Fed to ease too soon and fail to return inflation to its 2% target.

Some officials continued to argue that important items like housing inflation would begin to slow, with "several" saying that increases in productivity could allow growth to remain strong while inflation continued to fall.

But the minutes reflected a general concern about the status of an inflation fight that seemed well in hand at the start of the year.

"Participants noted indicators pointing to strong economic momentum and disappointing readings on inflation in recent months," while reiterating they would need greater confidence in continued disinflation before cutting rates, the minutes said.

"Some" officials said there were risks that Fed policy was "less restrictive than desired, which could add momentum to aggregate demand and put upward pressure on inflation," the minutes said - the sort of logic that could be used to defend another rate hike.

The Fed has raised its policy rate by 5.25 percentage points since March of 2022 to combat a surge in inflation.

The consumer price index (CPI) data released on Wednesday, if anything, further undermined any certainty around inflation's decline.

The U.S. Labor Department reported that the CPI accelerated to a 3.5% annual rate in March from 3.2% in February, and a separate "core" measure excluding food and energy prices stalled at 3.8%.

Fed policymakers are debating when to lower the central bank's benchmark overnight interest rate from the current 5.25%-5.50% range, where it has been since last July. They meet next on April 30-May 1.

After the release of the latest CPI data, investors pushed out their bets on the timing of an initial rate cut to September from June.

The minutes also showed the vast majority of Fed officials judged it would be prudent to slow the runoff of the central bank's massive holdings of Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities "fairly soon."

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Analysis-Fed rate-cutting cycle could be shallower than expected
Analysis-Fed rate-cutting cycle could be shallower than expected
Sep 21, 2024
NEW YORK (Reuters) - As the U.S. Federal Reserve begins its much-anticipated rate-easing cycle on Wednesday, interest-rate cuts in the months ahead may be shallower than the market expects. Some major investors and analysts see a rate-cutting cycle that could leave rates at relatively high levels due to the ongoing strength of the economy and say that deep cuts would...
Is The Fed Playing With Fire? 'We See Greater Risk Of An Overheating Economy' As They Cut Rates, Veteran Investor Warns
Is The Fed Playing With Fire? 'We See Greater Risk Of An Overheating Economy' As They Cut Rates, Veteran Investor Warns
Sep 21, 2024
Three things in life seem certain as of Wednesday, Sept. 18: death, taxes, and the Federal Reserve’s announcing a cut to the fed funds rate at its imminent Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. What remains uncertain is the size of the cut and its potential effects on the U.S. economy — particularly its impact on inflation, which still hovers...
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Likely to Have 'Positive' Impact on Banking Industry, RBC Says
Federal Reserve Rate Cut Likely to Have 'Positive' Impact on Banking Industry, RBC Says
Sep 21, 2024
08:56 AM EDT, 09/18/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The US Federal Reserve's expected easing in monetary policy via a reduction in the federal funds rate is likely to have a positive effect on the banking industry, RBC Capital Markets said in a note Wednesday. The interest cut will reduce the recession probability that is looming for next year, resulting in more...
Explainer-What does a Fed rate cut mean for American households?
Explainer-What does a Fed rate cut mean for American households?
Sep 21, 2024
(Reuters) - The Federal Reserve is set to cut U.S. short-term borrowing costs on Wednesday, a watershed moment that should start to ease some of the financial pressures everyday consumers have felt over the two and a half years that the central bank has battled with high inflation. The Fed, after 5.25 percentage points of increases between March 2022 and...
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved