financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Fed's Goolsbee: US rate-path 'dot plot' needs more context
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Fed's Goolsbee: US rate-path 'dot plot' needs more context
May 3, 2024 5:55 PM

PALO ALTO, California (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve should beef up its quarterly "dot plot" of policymakers' interest-rate-path views by including the individual economic expectations that inform each one, Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed, said on Friday.

The dot plot, published every three months since 2012, is a graph depicting where each of the 19 U.S. central bankers expect the Fed's policy rate to be at the end of each of the next few years.

The latest one, published in March, shows the median Fed policymaker expected to need to cut short-term borrowing costs three times by the end of this year, though nearly half saw fewer rate cuts, and several saw just one rate cut or none.

But in its current form, Goolsbee said in remarks prepared for delivery to a conference on monetary policy at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, "the dot plot is just a collection of opinions without economic content."

It's impossible to know, for instance, if a policymaker who writes down fewer rate cuts this year fears the economy is overheating, or simply believes the economy has the capacity to grow faster and therefore can tolerate higher rates.

The goal of Fed communications, Goolsbee said, should be to lay out the rationale for policy decisions, and the dot plot falls short.

"Because it can't be connected to the economic conditions the participant thinks will justify that interest rate, there is nothing to tell us why they think this a reasonable choice," he said. "A matrix that anonymously matches the economic forecasts to the rate path for each participant would answer some important questions."

His remarks come after European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel floated the idea of publishing an ECB "dot plot," and as the Fed itself prepares for a review of its own policy framework, expected to begin later this year.

Goolsbee did not offer his own rate-path view, or explain the economic assumptions that underlie it.

Earlier in the day Goolsbee said that recent cooling in the U.S. labor market gave him added confidence the economy is not overheating.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Recession By Election Day? Ironsides Macroeconomics' Barry Knapp Says 'Underpinnings Of The US Economy Are Very Weak'
Recession By Election Day? Ironsides Macroeconomics' Barry Knapp Says 'Underpinnings Of The US Economy Are Very Weak'
Aug 29, 2024
Barry Knapp, managing partner and director of research at Ironsides Macroeconomics, has expressed concerns about the state of the U.S. economy, suggesting that a recession could be on the horizon by election day. What Happened: Knapp shared his views on the economy during CNBC‘s “Squawk Box” on Tuesday. He voiced his concerns about the market and the economy, while maintaining...
US 30-year mortgage rate falls to lowest since April 2023
US 30-year mortgage rate falls to lowest since April 2023
Aug 29, 2024
(Reuters) - The interest rate for the most popular U.S. home loan slid to its lowest in 16 months, after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled the central bank was ready to lower borrowing costs next month to keep the job market from weakening further. The average contract rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell 6 basis points in the...
US companies return to currency options to hedge election, macro risks
US companies return to currency options to hedge election, macro risks
Aug 29, 2024
NEW YORK (Reuters) - U.S. corporations are turning to foreign exchange options again to protect their cash flow as they fear the U.S. presidential election and diverging central bank interest-rate policies could spark a period of currency volatility, bankers said. Currency swings, which can hike costs, disrupt cashflows and dent earnings, are far less pronounced than from 2020 to 2022,...
Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Falls Short Of Expectations In July, Personal Spending Accelerates
Fed's Preferred Inflation Gauge Falls Short Of Expectations In July, Personal Spending Accelerates
Aug 30, 2024
After three consecutive months of decline, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation held steady in July, although it came in slightly below market forecasts. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased by 2.5% in July 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to government data released Friday. Alongside this inflation data, both personal spending and spending...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved