financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Fed's Goolsbee: US rate-path 'dot plot' needs more context
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Fed's Goolsbee: US rate-path 'dot plot' needs more context
May 3, 2024 5:55 PM

PALO ALTO, California (Reuters) - The U.S. Federal Reserve should beef up its quarterly "dot plot" of policymakers' interest-rate-path views by including the individual economic expectations that inform each one, Austan Goolsbee, president of the Chicago Fed, said on Friday.

The dot plot, published every three months since 2012, is a graph depicting where each of the 19 U.S. central bankers expect the Fed's policy rate to be at the end of each of the next few years.

The latest one, published in March, shows the median Fed policymaker expected to need to cut short-term borrowing costs three times by the end of this year, though nearly half saw fewer rate cuts, and several saw just one rate cut or none.

But in its current form, Goolsbee said in remarks prepared for delivery to a conference on monetary policy at Stanford University's Hoover Institution, "the dot plot is just a collection of opinions without economic content."

It's impossible to know, for instance, if a policymaker who writes down fewer rate cuts this year fears the economy is overheating, or simply believes the economy has the capacity to grow faster and therefore can tolerate higher rates.

The goal of Fed communications, Goolsbee said, should be to lay out the rationale for policy decisions, and the dot plot falls short.

"Because it can't be connected to the economic conditions the participant thinks will justify that interest rate, there is nothing to tell us why they think this a reasonable choice," he said. "A matrix that anonymously matches the economic forecasts to the rate path for each participant would answer some important questions."

His remarks come after European Central Bank board member Isabel Schnabel floated the idea of publishing an ECB "dot plot," and as the Fed itself prepares for a review of its own policy framework, expected to begin later this year.

Goolsbee did not offer his own rate-path view, or explain the economic assumptions that underlie it.

Earlier in the day Goolsbee said that recent cooling in the U.S. labor market gave him added confidence the economy is not overheating.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Medical Cannabis Can Make You A Better Parent, Study Explains Why
Medical Cannabis Can Make You A Better Parent, Study Explains Why
Jul 26, 2024
Does consuming cannabis make you a better parent? It can, say researchers. A recently published study that looked into the question concluded that medical marijuana can increase parenting time by improving parents’ health as long as they don’t over do it. Marijuana can provide medical benefits for those suffering from chronic pain, sleep disorder, depression, and PTSD, allowing parents to...
Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for July 26
Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for July 26
Jul 26, 2024
02:34 PM EDT, 07/26/2024 (MT Newswires) -- Personal income was up 0.2% in June, below expectations, led by a 0.3% gain in wages and salaries and increases in transfer payments and return on assets that was offset by declines in rental income and proprietors' income. Personal consumption expenditures rose by 0.3% in June after a 0.4% increase in May, lifted...
Kansas City Fed Services Index Declines Below Breakeven Point, Indicates Contraction
Kansas City Fed Services Index Declines Below Breakeven Point, Indicates Contraction
Jul 26, 2024
11:11 AM EDT, 07/26/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Kansas City Federal Reserve's monthly composite services index fell further to a reading of minus 4 in July after declining to 2 in June. A reading above zero indicates growth, while a negative reading indicates contraction. The index is in line with the Philadelphia Fed index but contrasts with the Richmond Fed...
Hedge fund study on U.S. Treasury issuance fuels debate
Hedge fund study on U.S. Treasury issuance fuels debate
Jul 26, 2024
NEW YORK (Reuters) - A hedge fund study that said the U.S. Treasury last year effectively provided economic stimulus by moderating long-dated bond sales has sparked a debate in the bond market and a denial from the U.S. Treasury that said it was not aiming for such an effect. The U.S. Treasury Department announced in November it would slow the...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved