financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Fed's Musalem flags risk of rising inflation expectations and stagflation
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Fed's Musalem flags risk of rising inflation expectations and stagflation
Feb 20, 2025 9:23 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem on Thursday raised the twin risks of rising inflation expectations and difficult-to-address stagflation, in remarks that highlighted the potentially difficult choices facing the U.S. central bank.

While many of his colleagues say they regard inflation expectations as anchored, Musalem said he was concerned recent data showed they may be rising - a development that might force the Fed onto a more restrictive path.

"In the current environment, the stakes are higher than they would be if inflation was at or below target," Musalem said in comments prepared for delivery to the Economic Club of New York. "The risk that inflation expectations could become unanchored is higher than it would be if the economy was operating with slack and if consumers and businesses had not recently experienced a period of high inflation."

While he said he still feels inflation will converge to the Fed's 2% target, "market and some survey measures indicate that near-term expectations of inflation have risen notably over the past three months," Musalem said. If inflation does get stuck at current above-target levels or expectations do rise, "a more restrictive path of monetary policy relative to the baseline path might be appropriate."

Musalem's remarks did not give his current view about rate-cut expectations for this year.

But his warnings spoke to the possible complications surrounding the Fed's main narrative of falling inflation and eventual further rate cuts, an outlook that has remained the baseline even as officials acknowledge the possible impact on prices of new Trump administration import taxes and immigration rules.

That remains Musalem's core outlook as well, with monetary policy remaining restrictive "until inflation convergence is assured."

But coming policy shifts "could materially affect the path of the economy," he said. "The risks of inflation stalling above 2% or moving higher seem skewed to the upside ... An alternative and plausible scenario in which inflation ceases to converge, or rises, at the same time the labor market weakens must also be considered."

The combination of slowing growth and high inflation is a worst-case scenario for central bankers, leaving the Fed with tension between its employment and inflation goals and forced to choose which one to prioritize.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Monster Beverage posts surprise fall in quarterly net sales on choppy demand
Monster Beverage posts surprise fall in quarterly net sales on choppy demand
May 26, 2025
(Reuters) -Monster Beverage ( MNST ) reported a surprise fall in first-quarter revenue on Thursday, signaling consumers in the U.S. pared back spending on pricey energy drinks amid economic uncertainty. Colder weather in January and high inflation in February led to softer consumer spending, impacting sales during the quarter. The company also attributed the decline in net sales to changes...
Thai central bank chief says uncertainty very high over US tariffs impact
Thai central bank chief says uncertainty very high over US tariffs impact
May 26, 2025
BANGKOK (Reuters) -The effect on Thailand from the United States' tariff policy will be prolonged, with a very high degree of uncertainty over the potential impact, its central chief bank said on Friday. The impact will be more clear in the second half of the year, Bank of Thailand Governor Sethaput Suthiwartnarueput told a press briefing.  Thailand is among the...
'Financial Hurdles To Owning A Home Have Rarely Been Higher,' Says BMO As Fed Holds Rates, Extending Wait For Homebuyers
'Financial Hurdles To Owning A Home Have Rarely Been Higher,' Says BMO As Fed Holds Rates, Extending Wait For Homebuyers
May 26, 2025
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates steady Wednesday between 4.25% and 4.50%, marking the third consecutive pause in rate policy and extending the wait for potential homebuyers seeking relief from elevated mortgage costs. What Happened: Housing market participants hoping for signs of mortgage rate relief were disappointed as Fed Chairman Jerome Powell emphasized that no further action on interest rate...
Recession alarm bells are ringing: 5 smart savings strategies to prepare
Recession alarm bells are ringing: 5 smart savings strategies to prepare
May 26, 2025
Recession predictions, financial markets and tariffs have been on a rollercoaster ride lately. Escalating trade tensions with China and worsening consumer sentiment have made for a turbulent and uncertain start to 2025. While in March, President Donald Trump said he doesn't see a U.S. recession on the horizon, according to Bloomberg, financial experts are increasingly cautious. Bankrate's latest Economic Indicator...
Copyright 2023-2025 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved