financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
Fed's Musalem flags risk of rising inflation expectations and stagflation
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
Fed's Musalem flags risk of rising inflation expectations and stagflation
Feb 20, 2025 9:23 AM

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem on Thursday raised the twin risks of rising inflation expectations and difficult-to-address stagflation, in remarks that highlighted the potentially difficult choices facing the U.S. central bank.

While many of his colleagues say they regard inflation expectations as anchored, Musalem said he was concerned recent data showed they may be rising - a development that might force the Fed onto a more restrictive path.

"In the current environment, the stakes are higher than they would be if inflation was at or below target," Musalem said in comments prepared for delivery to the Economic Club of New York. "The risk that inflation expectations could become unanchored is higher than it would be if the economy was operating with slack and if consumers and businesses had not recently experienced a period of high inflation."

While he said he still feels inflation will converge to the Fed's 2% target, "market and some survey measures indicate that near-term expectations of inflation have risen notably over the past three months," Musalem said. If inflation does get stuck at current above-target levels or expectations do rise, "a more restrictive path of monetary policy relative to the baseline path might be appropriate."

Musalem's remarks did not give his current view about rate-cut expectations for this year.

But his warnings spoke to the possible complications surrounding the Fed's main narrative of falling inflation and eventual further rate cuts, an outlook that has remained the baseline even as officials acknowledge the possible impact on prices of new Trump administration import taxes and immigration rules.

That remains Musalem's core outlook as well, with monetary policy remaining restrictive "until inflation convergence is assured."

But coming policy shifts "could materially affect the path of the economy," he said. "The risks of inflation stalling above 2% or moving higher seem skewed to the upside ... An alternative and plausible scenario in which inflation ceases to converge, or rises, at the same time the labor market weakens must also be considered."

The combination of slowing growth and high inflation is a worst-case scenario for central bankers, leaving the Fed with tension between its employment and inflation goals and forced to choose which one to prioritize.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
Staking Will Define Bitcoin's Role in the Global Digital Economy in 2025
Staking Will Define Bitcoin's Role in the Global Digital Economy in 2025
Dec 17, 2024
Bitcoin has historically been used for two main things: as a store of value and a medium of exchange. These two use cases have served the burgeoning digital economy well, as evidenced by bitcoin's roughly $2 trillion market cap and millions of institutional and retail users around the globe. These two use cases can be considered native to Bitcoin in...
Staking Will Define Bitcoin's Role in the Global Digital Economy in 2025
Staking Will Define Bitcoin's Role in the Global Digital Economy in 2025
Dec 17, 2024
Bitcoin has historically been used for two main things: as a store of value and a medium of exchange. These two use cases have served the burgeoning digital economy well, as evidenced by bitcoin's roughly $2 trillion market cap and millions of institutional and retail users around the globe. These two use cases can be considered native to Bitcoin in...
Another 25-Basis-Point Rate Cut Seen for December FOMC Meeting; SEP Updates, Powell Comments in Focus
Another 25-Basis-Point Rate Cut Seen for December FOMC Meeting; SEP Updates, Powell Comments in Focus
Dec 17, 2024
02:19 PM EST, 12/17/2024 (MT Newswires) -- The Federal Open Market Committee is widely expected to lower the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% to 4.50%, so the focus will be on any updates to the Summary of Economic Projections and comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that hint at the future...
US business inventories barely rise in October
US business inventories barely rise in October
Dec 17, 2024
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. business inventories edged up in October as modest increases in stocks at retailers and wholesalers were partially offset by a decline at manufacturers. Inventories rose 0.1% after being unchanged in September, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Tuesday. The gain in inventories, a key component of gross domestic product, was in line with economists' expectations....
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved