02:40 PM EDT, 06/17/2025 (MT Newswires) -- The Federal Open Market Committee is overwhelmingly expected to maintain the range for its federal funds rate at the current 4.25% to 4.50% due to continued economic uncertainty, putting the focus on the updated Summary of Economic Projections.

Currently, the CME's FedWatch Tool sees a 99.9% chance of no change to the current target rate range.

The FOMC's statement following Wednesday's meeting is due for release at 2:00 pm ET, with Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's press conference scheduled to begin at 2:30 pm ET.

"Fed policymakers have all agreed on one thing so far in 2025: there is no obvious need for immediate changes in policy, and a patient approach is best," Jefferies said in a research note. "Incoming data will eventually reconcile the divergent views on inflation and growth/employment, so it is best to wait and see rather than act preemptively and risk making a mistake. The pricing in futures markets reflects a near-certainty that the fed funds rate will be unchanged following this meeting."

Since the most recent meeting on May 6-7, FOMC officials have pointed to continued uncertainty due to the Trump Administration's tariff plans but have indicated that the federal funds rate could be adjusted lower later this year if inflation growth caused by the tariffs proves to be temporary.

President Donald Trump has been critical of the Fed's decision to maintain interest rates, noting slowing hiring and softening inflation, and met with Powell at the White House on May 29. According to the Fed, Powell told Trump that the FOMC will make policy decisions "based solely on careful, objective, and non-political analysis."

Fed officials have generally expressed a belief that the US economy remains resilient despite the uncertainty, so the FOMC can wait to see the effects of the tariffs before lowering rates.

In the March SEP update, the median expectation was for 50 basis points of rate reduction in 2025, ending the year at 3.9%, then a further 50 basis points of reduction in 2026 to end at 3.4% and one more reduction to 3.1% by the end of 2027, only slightly above the expected long-term rate of 3%, all unchanged from the previous update in December.

The FOMC could lower its growth forecasts and raise its inflation forecasts for the remainder of the year compared with March estimates, but Powell's comments are likely to maintain the message that those are just forecasts and that the FOMC will move cautiously but act as needed as economic developments occur.

Currently, there is an 85.5% chance being priced in for no change at the July 29-30 FOMC meeting and a 14.5% chance of a 25-basis point rate reduction.