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G20 Summit in Delhi: Debt problems of Ukraine, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Egypt on the agenda
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G20 Summit in Delhi: Debt problems of Ukraine, Sri Lanka, Pakistan and Egypt on the agenda
Sep 4, 2023 8:15 AM

Many developing countries are struggling with debt issues that hurt their economies. The G20 summit in Delhi will discuss how to help them. Here are some of the countries that need debt relief: (PTI Photo)

ZAMBIA: Zambia, the first African country to default amid COVID-19, is nearing a debt repair plan after months of progress. It secured a $6.3 billion deal with the “Paris Club” and China in June and aims to reach another deal with its bondholders soon. The progress is seen as a boost for the G20 Common Framework, which aims to simplify debt restructurings but has faced challenges.

SRI LANKA: Sri Lanka is close to completing a debt overhaul plan that it announced in June. It has exchanged most of its dollar bonds into rupee notes and is working on a Treasury bond swap that has been postponed three times. The plan is crucial for its talks with foreign creditors and the IMF, which are expected to resume after Sept. 11. Any further delay could jeopardize its $2.9 billion bailout programme.

GHANA: Ghana, the fourth country to join the Common Framework, is advancing on its debt overhaul plan after defaulting last year. It aims to cut $10.5 billion from its international debt payments in three years and has tackled $4 billion of its domestic debt via swaps. It has sent a plan to its official sector creditors and hopes to seal a deal with its bondholders by year-end. The deal may include a recovery instrument that links payments to economic growth.

PAKISTAN: Pakistan, facing a $22 billion debt bill in 2024, is under a caretaker government until the November elections. It secured a $3 billion IMF bailout in June, followed by $3 billion from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Its reserves rose from $3.5 billion to $7.8 billion by August, but it still faces high inflation, interest rates and flood damage. Its default risk remains high without more support.

TUNISIA: Tunisia, hit by a 2011 revolution and an economic crisis, faces default risk as foreign debt payments loom. President Saied rejected the IMF’s $1.9 billion loan terms as “diktats”. Saudi Arabia gave $500 million in aid, but the economy suffers from import shortages. The EU offered 1 billion euros ($1.1 billion) in support, but it depends on the IMF deal or reforms.

EGYPT: Egypt, one of the big countries at risk of trouble, faces $100 billion of hard currency debt in five years. It has a $3 billion IMF programme and a devalued pound, but its privatisation plan is slow and its electricity subsidies are unchanged. Its bonds are trading at half their value and it needs support from wealthy Gulf nations to recover.

EL SALVADOR: El Salvador, once on the brink of default, has become a bond market darling thanks to two debt buybacks and a new IMF adviser. Its 2025 Eurobond rebounded from 27 cents to 91.50 cents in 2022, and its debt-to-GDP ratio fell to 77%, the lowest in three years. Its light debt payments until 2027 and President Bukele’s popularity have eased default worries.

KENYA: Kenya, with a public debt of nearly 70% of GDP, faces high debt distress risk. President Ruto’s government has cut spending and raised taxes, easing some default fears. It is negotiating with the African Development Bank and the World Bank for $80.6 million and budgetary support. But challenges remain; Ruto’s opponents resist his tax hikes, and protests stall some reforms, such as fuel subsidy cuts.

UKRAINE: Ukraine, which froze debt payments after Russia’s invasion in 2022, faces a debt restructuring dilemma. It will decide early next year whether to extend the freeze or seek more complex solutions. It needs $3-$4 billion a month to run the country and at least 1 trillion euros to rebuild after the war. Its debt plan also depends on the outcome of the 2024 U.S. Presidential election and the support it would get from a Republican winner.

LEBANON: Lebanon has been in default since 2020 with few signs its problems will be resolved any time. The IMF has issued stark warnings, but one bit of progress in the last couple of months has been a proposal by the central bank to lift the long-time peg on the country's local currency.

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