Speaking at the America Business Forum in Miami on Wednesday, President Donald Trump claimed victory on a key economic promise: gasoline prices are now hovering near $2 per gallon, a level he vowed to restore during his 2024 campaign.

Trump boasts that gasoline prices have “plummeted to the lowest in two decades, and we’re going to soon see two dollar gasoline.”

He added: “When you get oil and gas down, it’s so big… the importance of it is massive.”

But while prices at the pump have dropped, the market forces behind the decline — especially global oil supply, production trends and shipping flows — suggest this isn’t a direct result of White House policies.

What Are Energy Markets Saying?

Gasoline prices – which are tracked by the United States Gasoline Fund LP ( UGA ) – are indeed at multiyear lows.

The RBOB gasoline futures — the benchmark for wholesale U.S. gas — traded near $1.90 per gallon on Wednesday, after hitting a 4-year low of $1.74 in mid-October.

Year-to-date, prices are down 5%, and have fallen 7% compared to early November 2024. From their June 2022 peak, gasoline futures have collapsed by nearly 60%.

Crude oil shows a similarly steep decline. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude is now priced around $59 per barrel, down 17% so far in 2025 and also nearly 60% below its 2022 highs.

This drop in oil is the main driver behind cheaper gas. U.S. crude inventories jumped by over 5 million barrels last week, the biggest weekly build since July, according to government data. Fuel stockpiles fell slightly, but production continues to climb globally, raising fears of oversupply.

A Long, Shallow Price War In Global Oil Markets

Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities at Bank of America, believes the real driver behind falling crude prices is a slow-burning oil price war.

"OPEC+ is engaged in a long and shallow price war," Blanch said in his latest energy report. "They don't want to crash prices below $50, but they're being cautious not to oversupply the market either."

He added that low oil prices mandated by OPEC+ are still necessary to cap U.S. shale growth. "U.S. production has been stagnating” highlighting higher costs and weak investment returns are slowing North American oil growth.

Earlier this month, the core eight members of OPEC+ — Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman — met and agreed to a modest output increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December. But they also hit pause on any further hikes for the first three months of 2026, citing weak seasonal demand.

Importantly, the group showed it’s willing to act before the market shows cracks.

A major concern is the growing amount of oil sitting on ships.

Data from Vortexa shows "oil on water" has surged by 250 million barrels since August, reaching 1.4 billion barrels. These seaborne barrels haven't yet hit land storage — but when they do, it could flood inventories and pressure prices further.

Blanch attributed this partly to longer shipping routes due to Russian sanctions, backlogs at trade chokepoints like the Strait of Malacca, and slow buyer demand.

The Bottom Line

President Trump promised $2 gasoline — and that price is now a reality. But the celebration masks the real reasons behind the drop.

This isn't about increased U.S. output or aggressive White House energy reform.

It's about OPEC+ carefully managing supply, seaborne oil creating hidden stockpiles, and a slow-burning battle for market share — all happening on a global scale.

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