financetom
Economy
financetom
/
Economy
/
GDP back series data technically acceptable, says principal economic adviser
News World Market Environment Technology Personal Finance Politics Retail Business Economy Cryptocurrency Forex Stocks Market Commodities
GDP back series data technically acceptable, says principal economic adviser
Aug 31, 2018 8:15 AM

As the government ponders over the back series of GDP that created a political storm, a finance ministry adviser has hinted that the methodology may be technically acceptable despite its quirk.

Share Market Live

NSE

Principal economic adviser to the finance ministry Sanjeev Sanyal, said all methodologies to reconcile new series GDP data with the old will have some kind of quirk and it is perfectly acceptable if the quirk is known.

"Every single methodology will have some quirks...Now as long as it is technically correct and we are aware of this quirk in it, it's acceptable. Up to 2002, it shows all growth rates depressed and after 2002 it increases all growth rates," he said.

"Now is this a cause to be suspicious? No. All we say is that we need to be clear why this methodology does what it does...the technical advisory committee will have to go through it, let them look at it, it may be perfectly good," Sanyal said.

The Indian government changed the base year for GDP calculation from 2004-05 to 2011-12, by changing the goods and services in the basket to make it more current, in 2015 but needed a back series for long term comparison of economic growth.

The Committee on Real Sector Statistics, which reconciled the new series GDP data with the old, submitted its report to the National Statistical Commission (NSC) earlier this month and the NSC has now invited public opinion on it by September 30.

The GDP back series showed higher economic growth in the period coinciding with UPA-1 compared with the NDA-1 regime. This generated a political slugfest between Congress and BJP after the former claimed its economic policies to be superior.

However, Sanyal said: "This series is not needed for this debate. It was similar with the old series also because the GDP growth rate of the mid-2000s is very, very high even in the previous series. So, you don't need this series to have this debate."

He said when the government correctly updated to a series starting 2011-12 people criticised it as it did not match with the previous methodology. Now the same people are excited about this series created for longer term comparison.

"It is a series based on certain weightages which is considered a reasonable weightage for a particular point in time. It is an approximation that is considered technically acceptable at a point in time. All kinds of trade-offs have been made in order to arrive at this particular method," the adviser said.

"Remember these are all approximate measures of growth. There is nothing natural about GDP measurement. It is a convention based on a certain base. So whichever base I create, whatever convention I take it will have some quirk in it," he said.

Sanyal said as long as people recognise that it is technically correct and this kink is not happening because of some calculation error or some flaw in the methodology,"it's perfectly fine even if it has this kink in 2002, fine, that's ok".

However, the economic adviser said he is not part of the committee looking into the validity of the back series of GDP and does not know when the government will take a final call on it.

Comments
Welcome to financetom comments! Please keep conversations courteous and on-topic. To fosterproductive and respectful conversations, you may see comments from our Community Managers.
Sign up to post
Sort by
Show More Comments
Related Articles >
US business inventories rise less than expectated in September
US business inventories rise less than expectated in September
Nov 15, 2024
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. business inventories increased less than expected in September as a rise in stocks at retailers was partially offset by declines at manufacturers and wholesalers. Inventories edged up 0.1% after advancing 0.3% in September, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said in Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast inventories, a key component of gross domestic product, gaining...
US industrial production sags in October amid continued drag from Boeing strike, hurricanes
US industrial production sags in October amid continued drag from Boeing strike, hurricanes
Nov 15, 2024
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. industrial production fell for a second straight month in October, continuing to be depressed by hurricanes and a strike by factory workers at Boeing ( BA ), but a rebound is likely in November as the drag from these factors lifts. Industrial output dropped 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised 0.5% decline in September, the...
US retail sales slightly above expectations in October
US retail sales slightly above expectations in October
Nov 15, 2024
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. retail sales increased slightly more than expected in October, but underlying momentum in consumer spending appeared to slow at the start of the fourth quarter. Retail sales rose 0.4% last month after an upwardly revised 0.8% advance in September, the Commerce Department's Census Bureau said on Friday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales, which...
Fed's Collins says tech changes can improve financial system
Fed's Collins says tech changes can improve financial system
Nov 15, 2024
BOSTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Bank of Boston President Susan Collins said Friday the U.S. central bank needs to keep a close watch on technological developments in the financial system. We must all be attuned to the very real risks and challenges resulting from technical innovations, Collins said in the text of a speech for an event at her bank....
Copyright 2023-2026 - www.financetom.com All Rights Reserved