India will release its full-year as well as fourth-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) reading on Tuesday, May 31. As per a poll conducted by CNBC-TV18, the full-year GDP is expected to grow at 8.7 percent versus a minus 6.6 percent a year ago. Similarly, gross value added (GVA) is expected at 8 percent versus minus 4.8 percent in FY21.

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The year-ago reading was marred by the COVID-19 pandemic and so, the FY22 reading will be 1-2 percent higher than the pre-COVID level in real terms.

The National Statistical Office (NSO) had earlier estimated the FY22 GDP reading at 9.5 percent and had then revised it to 8.9 percent, which is also unlikely to be met according to the poll of economists and market watchers conducted by CNBC-TV18.

Two major setbacks

The fourth-quarter GDP was hit by the Omicron wave, which destabilised services for all of January and half of February. This was followed by the Russia-Ukraine war that started at the end of February, which in turn saw inflation spike and supply chains get disrupted.

What's doing well, what's not

According to economists, the agriculture, mining, and public admin sectors are growing well while manufacturing, construction, and trade hotels are lagging.

What the others are saying

An ICICI global markets report pegs the estimated fourth quarter growth at 3.5 percent compared with 5.4 percent in the third quarter, with muted manufacturing and contact intensive services. The FY23 (current fiscal) growth has been revised lower to 7 percent from 7.4 percent earlier.

According to a Reuters poll, growth in Asia's third-largest economy has been pencilled in at 4.0 percent for the January-March quarter, down from 5.4 percent in the fourth quarter of 2021. If realised, that would be the slowest in a year, and a third consecutive quarter of weaker growth.

(Edited by : Abhishek Jha)

First Published:May 30, 2022 1:45 PM IST