Goldman Sachs Research predicts a strong year for global economic growth in 2025, forecasting a 2.7% increase in global GDP on an annual average basis, just above the consensus.

The US is expected to lead the way, with GDP growth of 2.5%, significantly surpassing the consensus of 1.9%, Goldman Sachs Research said in a report. The consensus forecast is done by economists surveyed by Bloomberg.

However, the euro area is projected to lag behind, with growth forecasted at just 0.8%, below the consensus of 1.2%. A key factor driving these disparities is the potential for new trade policies under President-elect Donald Trump, who is predicted to impose fresh tariffs, particularly on China and imported cars.

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Goldman Sachs Chief Economist Jan Hatzius highlights that global inflation has significantly declined over the past two years, which supports real income growth and allows central banks to normalize monetary policy.

The US Federal Reserve is expected to cut its policy rate to 3.25-3.5%, while the European Central Bank is anticipated to lower its rate to 1.75%. Despite these adjustments, inflation in the US is expected to slow to 2.4% by late 2025, although an across-the-board 10% tariff could push it higher.

The forecast for the US economy reflects continued strong productivity growth, which has outpaced other developed markets. Since 2019, US labor productivity has grown at an annualized rate of 1.7%, compared to just 0.2% in the euro area.

However, potential US trade policies could create headwinds. Tariffs are expected to subtract 0.4% from global GDP, with larger tariffs possibly having a more severe impact.

For the euro area and China, trade uncertainty could reduce GDP growth by up to 0.9% and 0.7%, respectively. Despite this, Goldman Sachs remains optimistic about global economic growth, assuming that trade tensions do not escalate further.

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