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By Nicolás Misculin

BUENOS AIRES, July 16 (Reuters) - Higher global beef prices and new trade deals under President Javier Milei are encouraging Argentina's ranchers to raise heavier cattle, betting on a sustained export boom that could reshape the country's meat industry.

One analyst said they expect exports from Argentina - famous for its asado barbecues, steakhouses and world-leading per capita beef consumption - to rise by as much as 50% over the next four years, building on strong export revenue growth already seen in 2026.

The shift marks a break from a longstanding model focused heavily on domestic consumption, as ranchers respond to stronger overseas demand from a range of markets, including the United States, Israel, Europe and China, alongside fresh trade opportunities created by new agreements with the U.S. and European Union.

"The way we work has changed quite a bit," said cattle producer Guillermo Del Barrio, who runs the El Trebol feedlot about 130 km (80 miles) from Buenos Aires, where more than 8,000 head of cattle are raised and fattened.

"We used to bring smaller animals into the feedlot and send them (to slaughter) at 300 kilograms," Del Barrio said. Now they leave at around 550 kilograms, he added.

Argentine cattle are typically raised on pasture before spending several months in a series of pens known as feedlots, where cattle are fed high-energy diets, mainly corn and soybean meal, to accelerate weight gain before slaughter. Rising prices for live steers are also encouraging ranchers to fatten cattle more than they used to.

Trade deals with the U.S. and European Union pave the way for Argentina to sell more beef due to bigger import quotas at reduced tariffs, industry analysts say.

Buenos Aires signed a trade agreement with Washington in February that improved access to the U.S. market. President Donald Trump increased the import quota for Argentine beef as part of a broader bilateral trade agreement that built on pre-existing export arrangements between the two countries.

"The United States has grown tremendously," said Maria Julia Aiassa, an analyst at the Rosario Livestock Market (Rosgan).

Shipments to the U.S. rose 158% in the first five months of the year to 41,770 metric tons, totaling $348 million, according to the privately run Argentine beef promotion institute IPCVA.

A long-awaited European Union-Mercosur trade deal also came into force provisionally in May. Europe remains a well-established destination for Argentine beef through existing quotas, according to Aiassa, but the EU-Mercosur agreement "opens a very positive window" for further growth.

According to a Rosgan report, steady consumer demand and an expected decline of nearly 1 million metric tons in global beef production in 2026 are likely to keep international beef prices on an upward trajectory.

EXPORT PUSH

The industry's optimism follows a difficult period for Argentine exporters.

In early 2025, beef export volumes fell as a strong peso currency inflated local costs like feed and transport, hurting competitiveness in key overseas markets, particularly China, Argentina's largest beef buyer.

Argentina's beef export volumes rose 8% to 271,000 metric tons in the first five months of this year, according to meat exporters group ABC. Export revenues jumped 44.7% to $1.83 billion from the same period a year earlier, highlighting the impact of stronger international prices.

The average price of live steers in Argentina has climbed more than a fifth over the past 12 months to about $2.80 per kilogram, according to the Mercado Agroganadero index, encouraging producers to add more weight before slaughter.

For Juan Eiras, president of the Argentine Feedlot Chamber, favorable international prices are helping to drive a long-sought structural shift in the meat sector. Argentina has traditionally consumed much of the beef it produces.

Ranchers, spurred by attractive prices, are now increasingly retaining breeding females to build the national herd, Eiras said.

Argentina exports about 30% of its beef, equivalent to nearly 1 million metric tons. That share could rise to 40% in the coming years, according to Aiassa. While domestic consumption has softened, overseas sales have continued to expand.

"Today, virtually every exporting company either has their own feedlots or works under a 'hotel' arrangement with an associated feedlot," she said, referring to a system where producers pay feedlots to house and feed cattle for a period of time.

"From 2029 or 2030 onward, we could be projecting exports above 1.5 million metric tons," Aiassa said.